{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0657742-9f5b-40e8-b032-b0143ea5faa0", "symbol": "WI4", "name": "Weichai Power Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.754, "architecture_energy": 13.414, "architecture_maturity": 34.684, "architecture_confidence": 79.062, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.45, "rotation_up": 31.38, "upward_expansion": 54.13, "deceleration": 68.76, "rotation_down": 25.34, "downward_expansion": 24.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.647296, 3.590742, 3.770613, 3.700618 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.842, "trend_reference": 3.540023, "distance_from_trend": 0.085304, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.445812, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.65733, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.867268, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.324371, "excess_performance": 0.150124, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085304, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.161679, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.65733, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.212909, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.158673, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.673477, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.324371, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": null, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091251, "annualized_volatility": 0.58944, "from_high_reference": -0.215438, "from_low_reference": 2.238827 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.540023, "fair_value_reference": 1.445812, "structural_low": 2.815, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.066785, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.085471, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.310507, "worst_return": -0.016848, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.191361, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.100597, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.775833, "worst_return": -0.157735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.197139, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.060393, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.032988, "worst_return": 0.084461, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.826481, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.669494, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 3.44375, "worst_return": 0.49763, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044382, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026307, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.172299, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.185291, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048434, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.177436, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.295883, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030097, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.265616, "active": false }, 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"stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -9.673095, "energy": 28.646581, "activity_lines": [ 3.478742, 3.754392, 3.806702, 3.649865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.252, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 100.0, "trend": 3.382089, "fair_value": 1.380811, "relative_strength": 5.815015, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -15.148954, "energy": 33.019283, "activity_lines": [ 3.390497, 3.620634, 3.763898, 3.643861 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.728, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 100.0, "trend": 3.436456, "fair_value": 1.402372, "relative_strength": 18.318076, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.981764, "energy": 21.683925, "activity_lines": [ 3.472842, 3.595458, 3.767643, 3.666178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.616, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 100.0, "trend": 3.487723, "fair_value": 1.423296, "relative_strength": 13.592653, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.975451, "energy": 14.470401, "activity_lines": [ 3.526261, 3.564227, 3.759578, 3.677762 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.842, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 50.0, "trend": 3.540023, "fair_value": 1.445812, "relative_strength": 15.867268, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.754073, "energy": 13.414048, "activity_lines": [ 3.647296, 3.590742, 3.770613, 3.700618 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }