{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e067a922-b154-4be0-a6fc-535e99a9ddab", "symbol": "UFO", "name": "PROCURE SPACE ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 60.554, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.381, "architecture_energy": 41.265, "architecture_maturity": 7.396, "architecture_confidence": 64.965, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.0, "rotation_up": 16.13, "upward_expansion": 21.62, "deceleration": 53.89, "rotation_down": 62.49, "downward_expansion": 48.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.258667, 46.453893, 49.857425, 49.717038 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 48.13, "trend_reference": 48.984911, "distance_from_trend": -0.017453, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.603527, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.743618, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.414919, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.09461, "excess_performance": -0.092844, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017453, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082266, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.743618, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.442815, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024149, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.237637, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.09461, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.820064, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2856376, "relative_activity": 0.533329, "balance": 0.820064, "dry_up": 0.5373, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109228, "annualized_volatility": 0.475132, "from_high_reference": -0.293572, "from_low_reference": 0.649838 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.984911, "fair_value_reference": 27.603527, "structural_low": 41.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.017118, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.008255, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.085418, "worst_return": -0.011465, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.092074, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.03877, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.406688, "worst_return": 0.017109, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.227954, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.098866, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.811708, "worst_return": -0.070698, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072676, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060435, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006615, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.250201, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.214437, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.14554, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"typical_volume": 5321918.75, "trend": 48.589582, "fair_value": 27.102836, "relative_strength": -7.153011, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.360297, "energy": 38.632426, "activity_lines": [ 46.69077, 49.939039, 51.539863, 50.444806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.96, "volume": 2818848, "typical_volume": 5315149.25, "trend": 48.727578, "fair_value": 27.256377, "relative_strength": -7.319603, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.941392, "energy": 54.44955, "activity_lines": [ 45.172364, 48.144087, 50.782304, 50.081607 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.79, "volume": 2293466, "typical_volume": 5352622.25, "trend": 48.843245, "fair_value": 27.416165, "relative_strength": -6.321659, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.63769, "energy": 54.810807, "activity_lines": [ 44.414, 46.740473, 50.111174, 49.763054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.13, "volume": 2856376, "typical_volume": 5355744.4, "trend": 48.984911, "fair_value": 27.603527, "relative_strength": -2.414919, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.381392, "energy": 41.264977, "activity_lines": [ 45.258667, 46.453893, 49.857425, 49.717038 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }