{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e06e168c-b106-4397-8c81-5d7bc091fd64", "symbol": "1815", "name": "Fulltech Fiber Glass Corp.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.088, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.575, "architecture_energy": 59.215, "architecture_maturity": 11.878, "architecture_confidence": 90.555, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.86, "rotation_up": 13.18, "upward_expansion": 12.16, "deceleration": 39.58, "rotation_down": 64.45, "downward_expansion": 85.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 81.953335, 85.241819, 92.466191, 96.081505 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 91.5, "trend_reference": 98.756667, "distance_from_trend": -0.07348, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.89625, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.993627, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.463488, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.044521, "excess_performance": -0.396851, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07348, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013613, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.993627, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.616172, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.254635, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.210575, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.044521, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.706722, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70885716, "relative_activity": 0.418765, "balance": 0.706722, "dry_up": 0.501109, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1562, "annualized_volatility": 0.690015, "from_high_reference": -0.293436, "from_low_reference": 0.62234 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 98.756667, "fair_value_reference": 45.89625, "structural_low": 59.099998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.034521, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.012864, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.155738, "worst_return": -0.081967, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.026415, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.059507, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.028926, "worst_return": -0.131147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.028926, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.208761, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.01417, "worst_return": -0.242857, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.03397, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.176724, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008818, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024254, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042705, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.268116, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.253571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.594937, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.309346, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.38009, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 12.942682, "volume": 21087470, "typical_volume": 20351693.75, "trend": 12.396106, "fair_value": 13.02555, "relative_strength": -3.310755, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", 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"activity_lines": [ 77.540002, 85.974546, 94.473333, 97.375699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 85.900002, "volume": 140169078, "typical_volume": 182679399.9, "trend": 98.65, "fair_value": 45.402971, "relative_strength": -27.688451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.497561, "energy": 72.184519, "activity_lines": [ 78.293335, 84.916364, 93.164762, 96.542796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 91.5, "volume": 70885716, "typical_volume": 169273440.7, "trend": 98.756667, "fair_value": 45.89625, "relative_strength": -25.463488, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.574786, "energy": 59.215466, "activity_lines": [ 81.953335, 85.241819, 92.466191, 96.081505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }