{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0732d01-4d6b-4881-aa48-8ba048c427b0", "symbol": "600960", "name": "Bohai Automotive Systems CO., LTD.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.764, "architecture_energy": 55.434, "architecture_maturity": 65.592, "architecture_confidence": 92.39, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.73, "rotation_up": 26.31, "upward_expansion": 9.51, "deceleration": 59.61, "rotation_down": 50.89, "downward_expansion": 80.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.82, 3.850727, 4.151905, 4.442086 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.99, "trend_reference": 4.813333, "distance_from_trend": -0.171053, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.050513, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.01494, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.690718, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.235632, "excess_performance": -0.192428, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.171053, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086596, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.01494, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.285562, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186907, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11101, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.235632, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.191289, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43645706, "relative_activity": 0.672966, "balance": 0.191289, "dry_up": 0.941459, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089454, "annualized_volatility": 0.390712, "from_high_reference": -0.407132, "from_low_reference": 0.173529 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.813333, "fair_value_reference": 4.050513, "structural_low": 3.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.029126, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.005449, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.275862, "worst_return": -0.186047, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.030899, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.048362, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.442688, "worst_return": -0.186495, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.00277, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.051643, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.324111, "worst_return": -0.216718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.59, "volume": 74289123, "typical_volume": 79313036.05, "trend": 4.980667, "fair_value": 4.052115, "relative_strength": -24.646001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.79037, "energy": 79.095863, "activity_lines": [ 3.812667, 3.987818, 4.37319, 4.656667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.53, "volume": 68945547, "typical_volume": 70771113.35, "trend": 4.919, "fair_value": 4.049103, "relative_strength": -26.361901, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.017496, "energy": 68.898848, "activity_lines": [ 3.702, 3.870364, 4.26281, 4.563075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.92, "volume": 57355701, "typical_volume": 67204084.35, "trend": 4.866333, "fair_value": 4.049103, "relative_strength": -18.251769, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.654845, "energy": 61.83692, "activity_lines": [ 3.754, 3.847455, 4.200381, 4.498624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.99, "volume": 43645706, "typical_volume": 64855739.65, "trend": 4.813333, "fair_value": 4.050513, "relative_strength": -18.690718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.764019, "energy": 55.433752, "activity_lines": [ 3.82, 3.850727, 4.151905, 4.442086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }