{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0807155-0249-4532-9fe2-9de0754ea127", "symbol": "601127", "name": "Seres Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.442, "architecture_energy": 67.011, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.89, "rotation_up": 27.28, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.94, "rotation_down": 60.85, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.639334, 59.232182, 67.25681, 74.829117 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 56.82, "trend_reference": 86.056531, "distance_from_trend": -0.339736, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 100.130097, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.432538, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.41919, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.454126, "excess_performance": -0.410922, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.339736, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.20642, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.432538, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.351147, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.474192, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124008, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.454126, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.310876, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 174689613, "relative_activity": 1.672798, "balance": 0.310876, "dry_up": 1.599993, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112607, "annualized_volatility": 0.395464, "from_high_reference": -0.674066, "from_low_reference": 0.092482 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 86.056531, "fair_value_reference": 100.130097, "structural_low": 52.009998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.022622, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.043082, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.654024, "worst_return": -0.220079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.142709, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.092749, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.769398, "worst_return": -0.387114, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.598137, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.49475, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 2.385433, "worst_return": -0.564625, "sufficient": true }, { 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"gate": "down", "direction": -79.627408, "energy": 82.291684, "activity_lines": [ 56.802001, 61.258192, 70.679057, 78.652755 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 62.25, "volume": 200526052, "typical_volume": 100231983.2, "trend": 88.194531, "fair_value": 100.02559, "relative_strength": -41.657564, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.718795, "energy": 66.916078, "activity_lines": [ 58.207334, 60.56628, 69.136076, 76.85328 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.82, "volume": 174689613, "typical_volume": 104429596.75, "trend": 86.056531, "fair_value": 100.130097, "relative_strength": -47.41919, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.4415, "energy": 67.011021, "activity_lines": [ 57.639334, 59.232182, 67.25681, 74.829117 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }