{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e083c37d-c4d4-4531-9d08-d556b6df192e",
    "symbol": "FPAG",
    "name": "FPA GLOBAL EQUITY ETF",
    "exchange": "CBOE",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 87.104,
    "architecture_energy": 80.377,
    "architecture_maturity": 36.007,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.732,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 7.14,
        "rotation_up": 75.33,
        "upward_expansion": 92.59,
        "deceleration": 43.23,
        "rotation_down": 14.14,
        "downward_expansion": 16.92
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        41.550233,
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        40.247189,
        39.60172
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 42.9407,
    "trend_reference": 39.034014,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.100084,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 31.430562,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.366208,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 1.546574,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.095633,
    "excess_performance": -0.029991,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.100084,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.034817,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.366208,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.052096,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.015466,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.037617,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.095633,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.242777,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 153199,
      "relative_activity": 0.4183,
      "balance": 2.242777,
      "dry_up": 0.456556,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.027554,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.182657,
      "from_high_reference": -0.014217,
      "from_low_reference": 0.275792
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 39.034014,
      "fair_value_reference": 31.430562,
      "structural_low": 34.956351,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 31,
        "median_return": 0.016518,
        "positive_rate": 0.645161,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.645161,
        "median_excess_return": 0.001941,
        "regime_survival": 0.83871,
        "best_return": 0.057822,
        "worst_return": -0.13727,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "median_return": 0.023375,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001665,
        "regime_survival": 0.7,
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        "worst_return": -0.10254,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "positive_rate": 1.0,
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        "worst_return": 0.034956,
        "sufficient": true
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      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "worst_return": 0.127055,
        "sufficient": false
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 451403.35,
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        "fair_value": 31.093773,
        "relative_strength": 0.169925,
        "stage": 2,
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        "direction": 65.756159,
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          39.068747
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 40.02,
        "volume": 124257,
        "typical_volume": 439322.35,
        "trend": 38.745767,
        "fair_value": 31.193282,
        "relative_strength": -0.842029,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "direction": 59.827504,
        "energy": 54.983596,
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          40.402,
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          39.6094,
          39.156744
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 41.59,
        "volume": 197856,
        "typical_volume": 415486.05,
        "trend": 38.887813,
        "fair_value": 31.306616,
        "relative_strength": 1.872278,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.015488,
        "energy": 65.160967,
        "activity_lines": [
          40.812667,
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          39.87685,
          39.340243
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 42.9407,
        "volume": 153199,
        "typical_volume": 366242.25,
        "trend": 39.034014,
        "fair_value": 31.430562,
        "relative_strength": 1.546574,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.103616,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}