{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0856d01-6198-403a-8af2-cab2c69edf1f", "symbol": "VEE", "name": "VEEM Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.114, "architecture_energy": 12.26, "architecture_maturity": 18.912, "architecture_confidence": 74.394, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.48, "rotation_up": 27.0, "upward_expansion": 31.07, "deceleration": 39.03, "rotation_down": 28.67, "downward_expansion": 41.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.553, 0.549909, 0.541738, 0.547968 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.515, "trend_reference": 0.5645, "distance_from_trend": -0.087688, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.051303, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.510132, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.811565, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.119658, "excess_performance": -0.183364, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.087688, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163084, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.510132, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018935, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.388116, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013783, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.119658, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.157218, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 341776, "relative_activity": 1.101104, "balance": 1.157218, "dry_up": 0.862193, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.131441, "annualized_volatility": 0.704607, "from_high_reference": -0.735897, "from_low_reference": 0.157303 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.5645, "fair_value_reference": 1.051303, "structural_low": 0.445, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.035681, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.005176, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.255, "worst_return": -0.259459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.01168, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.027067, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.135135, "worst_return": -0.20339, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.102703, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.096053, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.22545, "worst_return": -0.521895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038063, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.378277, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.156757, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.255474, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.255, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.17619, 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.722104, "energy": 12.734859, "activity_lines": [ 0.543333, 0.534636, 0.537452, 0.554075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.57, "volume": 323526, "typical_volume": 467397.2, "trend": 0.584667, "fair_value": 1.049603, "relative_strength": -30.708885, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.236731, "energy": 5.495385, "activity_lines": [ 0.55, 0.541545, 0.53931, 0.552677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.55, "volume": 86283, "typical_volume": 385594.8, "trend": 0.577, "fair_value": 1.050462, "relative_strength": -32.329401, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.859764, "energy": 10.723248, "activity_lines": [ 0.551333, 0.544091, 0.539548, 0.550441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.595, "volume": 318892, "typical_volume": 341916.4, "trend": 0.571333, "fair_value": 1.051139, "relative_strength": -27.914843, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.005703, "energy": 10.14995, "activity_lines": [ 0.569, 0.554727, 0.544476, 0.551602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.515, "volume": 341776, "typical_volume": 310393.8, "trend": 0.5645, "fair_value": 1.051303, "relative_strength": -38.811565, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.11362, "energy": 12.260174, "activity_lines": [ 0.553, 0.549909, 0.541738, 0.547968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }