{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e085fb3f-68d5-4282-bd11-828e00a12928", "symbol": "QBE", "name": "QBE Insurance Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.334, "architecture_energy": 43.409, "architecture_maturity": 93.2, "architecture_confidence": 59.518, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.51, "rotation_up": 40.44, "upward_expansion": 71.2, "deceleration": 74.28, "rotation_down": 27.99, "downward_expansion": 11.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.734667, 24.723636, 24.082952, 23.365915 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.42, "trend_reference": 22.276339, "distance_from_trend": 0.09623, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.211347, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.340922, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.8575, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.255532, "excess_performance": 0.191826, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.09623, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090364, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.340922, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052824, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.098575, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012994, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.255532, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.734085, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17727870, "relative_activity": 1.431538, "balance": 0.734085, "dry_up": 1.350827, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043454, "annualized_volatility": 0.20893, "from_high_reference": -0.054588, "from_low_reference": 0.364385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.276339, "fair_value_reference": 18.211347, "structural_low": 18.630677, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.010974, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.000947, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.15839, "worst_return": -0.082885, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.03452, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.043681, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.169492, "worst_return": -0.110025, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.039023, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.01631, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.200544, "worst_return": -0.15674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 12843615.45, "trend": 21.92021, "fair_value": 18.071836, "relative_strength": 18.596711, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.448646, "energy": 60.42657, "activity_lines": [ 25.008, 24.607636, 23.81519, 23.035484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.73, "volume": 15041705, "typical_volume": 12556576.8, "trend": 22.1081, "fair_value": 18.141015, "relative_strength": 15.10982, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.18443, "energy": 53.465462, "activity_lines": [ 24.919333, 24.704363, 23.973857, 23.21676 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.42, "volume": 17727870, "typical_volume": 12383795.45, "trend": 22.276339, "fair_value": 18.211347, "relative_strength": 9.8575, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.334385, "energy": 43.408742, "activity_lines": [ 24.734667, 24.723636, 24.082952, 23.365915 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }