{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0893ede-eab2-4a3a-9377-e2c6464c62a5", "symbol": "ACB", "name": "Aurora Cannabis Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.62, "architecture_energy": 53.945, "architecture_maturity": 72.295, "architecture_confidence": 90.987, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 21.94, "upward_expansion": 8.46, "deceleration": 48.37, "rotation_down": 57.99, "downward_expansion": 81.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.922667, 3.966364, 4.221238, 4.382172 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.15, "trend_reference": 4.65, "distance_from_trend": -0.107527, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.535128, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.36497, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.530083, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.129979, "excess_performance": -0.2504, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107527, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14101, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.36497, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048619, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.345301, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005173, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.129979, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.335725, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2814100, "relative_activity": 1.951154, "balance": 1.335725, "dry_up": 1.234213, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074977, "annualized_volatility": 0.344042, "from_high_reference": -0.555198, "from_low_reference": 0.155989 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.65, "fair_value_reference": 6.535128, "structural_low": 3.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.034908, "positive_rate": 0.395349, "directional_follow_through": 0.581395, "median_excess_return": -0.036547, "regime_survival": 0.837209, "best_return": 0.607914, "worst_return": -0.441667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.139073, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.159324, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.378512, "worst_return": -0.533505, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.273122, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.362702, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.432727, "worst_return": -0.676208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.103286, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.128162, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.118694, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.231087, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.381786, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060729, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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-79.413171, "energy": 83.298445, "activity_lines": [ 3.902, 4.131091, 4.372619, 4.546344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.77, "volume": 1009500, "typical_volume": 1352335.0, "trend": 4.776667, "fair_value": 6.577244, "relative_strength": -40.314505, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.223182, "energy": 86.789207, "activity_lines": [ 3.830667, 4.031273, 4.302095, 4.476022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.88, "volume": 1443900, "typical_volume": 1362635.0, "trend": 4.708, "fair_value": 6.555962, "relative_strength": -37.528506, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.802797, "energy": 82.062562, "activity_lines": [ 3.826, 3.966, 4.246857, 4.418172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.15, "volume": 2814100, "typical_volume": 1442275.0, "trend": 4.65, "fair_value": 6.535128, "relative_strength": -34.530083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.62046, "energy": 53.945, "activity_lines": [ 3.922667, 3.966364, 4.221238, 4.382172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }