{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e08d4a02-fb01-4252-ac89-d9e8562065b9", "symbol": "XST", "name": "Xstate Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.411, "architecture_energy": 87.4, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.07, "rotation_up": 17.83, "upward_expansion": 21.82, "deceleration": 37.06, "rotation_down": 70.77, "downward_expansion": 97.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.011733, 0.012873, 0.017343, 0.019283 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.011, "trend_reference": 0.02075, "distance_from_trend": -0.46988, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.015238, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.2781, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -51.329228, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.45, "excess_performance": -0.513706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.46988, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085231, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.2781, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.310179, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.513292, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.006414, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.45, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.489844, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6965659, "relative_activity": 0.620604, "balance": 0.489844, "dry_up": 0.451817, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.262238, "annualized_volatility": 1.113136, "from_high_reference": -0.847222, "from_low_reference": 0.222222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.02075, "fair_value_reference": 0.015238, "structural_low": 0.009, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.080128, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.07501, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 1.229889, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.166667, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.06078, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.23, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.117344, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.6725, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.283333, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.355514, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.15, "worst_return": -0.555556, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.307692, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.04639, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095238, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.157895, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034483, 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0.015263, "relative_strength": -36.337267, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.065687, "energy": 76.22757, "activity_lines": [ 0.0142, 0.015655, 0.020362, 0.021213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.013, "volume": 2090245, "typical_volume": 11587404.05, "trend": 0.02135, "fair_value": 0.01527, "relative_strength": -40.33756, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.284298, "energy": 78.326978, "activity_lines": [ 0.0138, 0.014673, 0.019474, 0.020663 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.01, "volume": 6307609, "typical_volume": 11318652.8, "trend": 0.02105, "fair_value": 0.015257, "relative_strength": -54.729671, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.325026, "energy": 89.469999, "activity_lines": [ 0.012467, 0.013509, 0.018333, 0.019931 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.011, "volume": 6965659, "typical_volume": 11224002.6, "trend": 0.02075, "fair_value": 0.015238, "relative_strength": -51.329228, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.410626, "energy": 87.399617, "activity_lines": [ 0.011733, 0.012873, 0.017343, 0.019283 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }