{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e091737c-e2f0-44a3-bf6d-6a98c9965b1a", "symbol": "PNR", "name": "Pantoro Gold Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.027, "architecture_energy": 63.683, "architecture_maturity": 91.94, "architecture_confidence": 95.977, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 27.41, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 58.89, "rotation_down": 55.6, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.178667, 2.235545, 2.566024, 2.927409 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.52, "trend_reference": 3.498833, "distance_from_trend": -0.27976, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.565692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.017809, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.809003, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.434978, "excess_performance": -0.498683, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.27976, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200754, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.017809, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.397602, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.42809, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199095, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.434978, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.523515, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19181739, "relative_activity": 1.694777, "balance": 0.523515, "dry_up": 1.441083, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130647, "annualized_volatility": 0.853852, "from_high_reference": -0.618759, "from_low_reference": 0.469388 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.498833, "fair_value_reference": 2.565692, "structural_low": 1.715, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.026671, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.066558, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.313725, "worst_return": -0.420455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.271676, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.293366, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.166667, "worst_return": -0.552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.432, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.41058, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.585366, "worst_return": -0.583333, "sufficient": false }, { 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"volume": 15991329, "typical_volume": 12647816.5, "trend": 3.685167, "fair_value": 2.549865, "relative_strength": -52.777584, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.949926, "energy": 83.432216, "activity_lines": [ 2.074, 2.289364, 2.692833, 3.102011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.04, "volume": 13361187, "typical_volume": 11876719.4, "trend": 3.581167, "fair_value": 2.555314, "relative_strength": -52.585596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.024309, "energy": 80.031431, "activity_lines": [ 2.034333, 2.208909, 2.60319, 2.995871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.52, "volume": 19181739, "typical_volume": 11318146.2, "trend": 3.498833, "fair_value": 2.565692, "relative_strength": -42.809003, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.026908, "energy": 63.68265, "activity_lines": [ 2.178667, 2.235545, 2.566024, 2.927409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }