{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e091737c-e2f0-44a3-bf6d-6a98c9965b1a", "symbol": "PNR", "name": "Pantoro Gold Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-10-09", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 34.42, "architecture_energy": 47.132, "architecture_maturity": 8.421, "architecture_confidence": 71.798, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.92, "rotation_up": 68.59, "upward_expansion": 48.27, "deceleration": 19.25, "rotation_down": 14.87, "downward_expansion": 27.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.918667, 2.844545, 2.64019, 2.701333 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.02, "trend_reference": 2.861833, "distance_from_trend": 0.055268, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.682647, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.125754, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.234842, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.219638, "excess_performance": -0.192408, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055268, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200866, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.125754, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.303809, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192348, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.322369, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.219638, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.478908, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14330397, "relative_activity": 1.941372, "balance": 2.478908, "dry_up": 2.444211, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085456, "annualized_volatility": 0.610669, "from_high_reference": -0.533951, "from_low_reference": 0.585302 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.861833, "fair_value_reference": 2.682647, "structural_low": 1.905, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.275, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.236046, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.275, "worst_return": -0.275, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.5, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.422105, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.5, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.4875, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.508004, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.4875, "worst_return": -0.4875, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105263, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.238095, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.266667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.228374, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.194581, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.122047, "active": false }, { "regime": 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2.700075 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "close": 2.94, "volume": 13895632, "typical_volume": 6902571.8, "trend": 2.950167, "fair_value": 2.652679, "relative_strength": -23.223859, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 13.401369, "energy": 25.923385, "activity_lines": [ 2.816, 2.715636, 2.565857, 2.693376 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "close": 2.93, "volume": 13457923, "typical_volume": 7069845.95, "trend": 2.8765, "fair_value": 2.667429, "relative_strength": -22.404528, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.720227, "energy": 21.482203, "activity_lines": [ 2.854, 2.780364, 2.597786, 2.692075 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "close": 3.02, "volume": 14330397, "typical_volume": 7381582.7, "trend": 2.861833, "fair_value": 2.682647, "relative_strength": -19.234842, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.420308, "energy": 47.131523, "activity_lines": [ 2.918667, 2.844545, 2.64019, 2.701333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }