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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.677, "architecture_energy": 18.315, "architecture_maturity": 82.886, "architecture_confidence": 77.24, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.44, "rotation_up": 21.08, "upward_expansion": 53.1, "deceleration": 90.77, "rotation_down": 38.31, "downward_expansion": 21.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 286.914433, 305.662347, 302.948467, 285.845621 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 295.0, "trend_reference": 264.859785, "distance_from_trend": 0.113797, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 189.51911, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.556571, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.987834, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.299997, "excess_performance": -0.141375, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.113797, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.143455, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.556571, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007445, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099878, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026372, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.299997, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.587111, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5146915, "relative_activity": 0.683455, "balance": 1.587111, "dry_up": 0.820752, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.207186, "annualized_volatility": 0.666903, "from_high_reference": -0.301362, "from_low_reference": 0.770686 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 264.859785, "fair_value_reference": 189.51911, 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"close": 265.0, "volume": 5404498, "typical_volume": 7203755.25, "trend": 259.662088, "fair_value": 187.488443, "relative_strength": -14.464184, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.080177, "energy": 15.914337, "activity_lines": [ 305.299095, 317.965846, 301.941702, 282.657391 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 276.0, "volume": 5693277, "typical_volume": 7333771.9, "trend": 261.920333, "fair_value": 188.413225, "relative_strength": -12.920335, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.764761, "energy": 20.074627, "activity_lines": [ 289.373651, 309.588546, 301.674269, 283.711449 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 295.0, "volume": 5146915, "typical_volume": 7530731.45, "trend": 264.859785, "fair_value": 189.51911, "relative_strength": -9.987834, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.677188, "energy": 18.315341, "activity_lines": [ 286.914433, 305.662347, 302.948467, 285.845621 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }