{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e09f0ce0-d587-460a-8287-3ab9d31474ee", "symbol": "JEPQ", "name": "JPMORGAN NASDAQ EQTY PREM INC A", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.007, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.715, "architecture_energy": 23.816, "architecture_maturity": 61.513, "architecture_confidence": 76.196, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.76, "rotation_up": 27.48, "upward_expansion": 56.53, "deceleration": 88.3, "rotation_down": 31.54, "downward_expansion": 17.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.301512, 28.494238, 28.374246, 27.958383 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 28.809999, "trend_reference": 27.485391, "distance_from_trend": 0.048193, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.05176, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.150019, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.432638, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.084437, "excess_performance": -0.035984, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048193, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024885, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.150019, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013592, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044326, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017976, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084437, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.697512, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 247500, "relative_activity": 1.334987, "balance": 0.697512, "dry_up": 1.855633, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035409, "annualized_volatility": 0.159615, "from_high_reference": -0.04039, "from_low_reference": 0.203724 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.485391, "fair_value_reference": 25.05176, "structural_low": 24.836008, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016465, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004927, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032584, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 21.4676, "volume": 290300, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, 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"relative_strength": -4.617553, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.463149, "energy": 20.268693, "activity_lines": [ 28.144195, 28.452939, 28.280669, 27.869802 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.809999, "volume": 247500, "typical_volume": 185395.0, "trend": 27.485391, "fair_value": 25.05176, "relative_strength": -4.432638, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.714535, "energy": 23.81633, "activity_lines": [ 28.301512, 28.494238, 28.374246, 27.958383 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }