{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e09f5f95-191a-4ab5-a954-20ecf47d5b41", "symbol": "2800", "name": "Tracker Fund Of Hong Kong", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 89.763, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 14.183, "architecture_energy": 28.286, "architecture_maturity": 70.311, "architecture_confidence": 86.755, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.68, "rotation_up": 63.02, "upward_expansion": 34.7, "deceleration": 38.25, "rotation_down": 14.79, "downward_expansion": 24.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.816, 25.177091, 25.240365, 25.398934 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.16, "trend_reference": 25.708959, "distance_from_trend": 0.017544, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.022718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.244368, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.607028, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.01522, "excess_performance": 0.018362, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017544, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013716, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.244368, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054794, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.01607, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008457, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01522, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.796203, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3150033338, "relative_activity": 1.151882, "balance": 0.796203, "dry_up": 1.172668, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03605, "annualized_volatility": 0.154143, "from_high_reference": -0.069466, "from_low_reference": 0.141361 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.708959, "fair_value_reference": 21.022718, "structural_low": 22.92, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.019523, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": 0.001994, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.1565, "worst_return": -0.168665, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.038539, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.004262, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.222733, "worst_return": -0.128911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.078996, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.019809, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.065109, "worst_return": -0.123206, "sufficient": true 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-65.23103, "energy": 76.589596, "activity_lines": [ 24.078667, 24.538546, 25.081912, 25.394226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.98, "volume": 3793169296, "typical_volume": 2989148570.75, "trend": 25.721715, "fair_value": 20.869059, "relative_strength": 1.551638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.551518, "energy": 52.290372, "activity_lines": [ 24.348, 24.535637, 25.043284, 25.344802 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.42, "volume": 3148063537, "typical_volume": 2924047126.85, "trend": 25.70872, "fair_value": 20.914337, "relative_strength": 1.627676, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.847515, "energy": 22.300465, "activity_lines": [ 24.770667, 24.640364, 25.054767, 25.325337 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.4, "volume": 2736237266, "typical_volume": 2817944111.7, "trend": 25.710523, "fair_value": 20.968086, "relative_strength": 1.733302, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.062601, "energy": 17.975473, "activity_lines": [ 25.444, 24.936, 25.161061, 25.369936 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.16, "volume": 3150033338, "typical_volume": 2734684203.45, "trend": 25.708959, "fair_value": 21.022718, "relative_strength": 1.607028, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.183271, "energy": 28.285959, "activity_lines": [ 25.816, 25.177091, 25.240365, 25.398934 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }