{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0a34233-3c63-4347-add0-bab3145c607f", "symbol": "FHER3", "name": "Fertilizantes Heringer S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -92.514, "architecture_energy": 95.812, "architecture_maturity": 53.098, "architecture_confidence": 78.467, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 8.32, "upward_expansion": 21.92, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 88.75, "downward_expansion": 99.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.493333, 3.649818, 3.81819, 3.907699 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 3.27, "trend_reference": 4.030667, "distance_from_trend": -0.18872, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.956282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.340231, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.232223, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.273333, "excess_performance": -0.216285, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.18872, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052277, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.340231, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05634, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.242322, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077455, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.273333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.238042, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23600, "relative_activity": 1.588691, "balance": 0.238042, "dry_up": 1.065298, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05387, "annualized_volatility": 0.233482, "from_high_reference": -0.394444, "from_low_reference": 0.031546 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.030667, "fair_value_reference": 4.956282, "structural_low": 3.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.029167, "positive_rate": 0.393939, "directional_follow_through": 0.606061, "median_excess_return": -0.030742, "regime_survival": 0.878788, "best_return": 0.781609, "worst_return": -0.391538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.0375, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.118712, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.442308, "worst_return": -0.439585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.049451, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.018468, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.249834, "worst_return": -0.456506, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-05-12", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.76995, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064295, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096774, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.310987, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054404, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.419178, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.037445, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142251, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042959, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.1825, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.48, "volume": 77100, "typical_volume": 362135.0, "trend": 15.089333, "fair_value": 14.567051, "relative_strength": -22.094488, "stage": 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"energy": 60.688432, "activity_lines": [ 3.928, 3.980182, 4.040667, 4.095398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 3.85, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 25355.0, "trend": 4.158, "fair_value": 5.275064, "relative_strength": -14.972343, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.691896, "energy": 65.888275, "activity_lines": [ 3.896, 3.947273, 4.019667, 4.073075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.87, "volume": 13200, "typical_volume": 25380.0, "trend": 4.132, "fair_value": 5.2125, "relative_strength": -15.707678, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.360896, "energy": 61.587175, "activity_lines": [ 3.884, 3.924545, 4.002238, 4.054495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.79, "volume": 6500, "typical_volume": 21215.0, "trend": 4.110667, "fair_value": 5.147179, "relative_strength": -14.930692, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.753144, "energy": 64.883052, "activity_lines": [ 3.850667, 3.891273, 3.978714, 4.03243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.6, "volume": 15500, "typical_volume": 16505.0, "trend": 4.086333, "fair_value": 5.083013, "relative_strength": -18.75541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.909116, "energy": 81.717962, "activity_lines": [ 3.761333, 3.830364, 3.938095, 3.999484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.45, "volume": 17700, "typical_volume": 14750.0, "trend": 4.056333, "fair_value": 5.021795, "relative_strength": -23.208763, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.419194, "energy": 90.866119, "activity_lines": [ 3.640667, 3.751455, 3.884857, 3.95843 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.27, "volume": 23600, "typical_volume": 14855.0, "trend": 4.030667, "fair_value": 4.956282, "relative_strength": -24.232223, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -92.513743, "energy": 95.812111, "activity_lines": [ 3.493333, 3.649818, 3.81819, 3.907699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }