{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0aceed7-5a40-47aa-8659-19467d2f2b32", "symbol": "XPBR31", "name": "XP Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.25, "architecture_energy": 23.763, "architecture_maturity": 63.79, "architecture_confidence": 76.242, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.05, "rotation_up": 26.37, "upward_expansion": 19.14, "deceleration": 44.88, "rotation_down": 28.1, "downward_expansion": 55.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 85.075335, 84.482586, 85.547005, 88.671757 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 83.190002, "trend_reference": 93.021953, "distance_from_trend": -0.105695, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 96.521522, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.13812, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.831339, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.177802, "excess_performance": -0.120754, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.105695, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038028, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.13812, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087499, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.148313, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05424, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.177802, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.516932, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2123711, "relative_activity": 0.727023, "balance": 0.516932, "dry_up": 0.701607, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066377, "annualized_volatility": 0.341062, "from_high_reference": -0.303091, "from_low_reference": 0.073077 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 93.021953, "fair_value_reference": 96.521522, "structural_low": 77.524744, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.025562, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.003371, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.32763, "worst_return": -0.065203, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.072867, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.080574, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.600349, "worst_return": 0.042084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.177956, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.088396, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.607366, "worst_return": -0.176252, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.576177, "energy": 27.725083, "activity_lines": [ 84.750001, 83.468486, 86.734699, 90.272177 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 85.720001, "volume": 2225522, "typical_volume": 3302844.45, "trend": 93.377619, "fair_value": 96.881057, "relative_strength": -14.162576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.393459, "energy": 23.10009, "activity_lines": [ 85.404001, 83.900719, 86.336324, 89.765729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 86.56, "volume": 1808996, "typical_volume": 3015065.0, "trend": 93.328953, "fair_value": 96.70131, "relative_strength": -14.7091, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.794826, "energy": 21.527477, "activity_lines": [ 85.922668, 84.521551, 86.079426, 89.325882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 83.190002, "volume": 2123711, "typical_volume": 2921103.75, "trend": 93.021953, "fair_value": 96.521522, "relative_strength": -14.831339, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.249968, "energy": 23.763289, "activity_lines": [ 85.075335, 84.482586, 85.547005, 88.671757 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }