{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0b9dd88-7035-478d-81e8-bb8f9c9b784e", "symbol": "001239", "name": "Xiangtan Yongda Machinery Manufacturing Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.58, "architecture_energy": 86.425, "architecture_maturity": 56.375, "architecture_confidence": 86.222, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.51, "rotation_up": 8.92, "upward_expansion": 21.63, "deceleration": 37.14, "rotation_down": 79.44, "downward_expansion": 97.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.452, 12.171273, 13.098905, 13.752452 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.65, "trend_reference": 14.648333, "distance_from_trend": -0.204688, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.929489, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.268652, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.893677, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.295647, "excess_performance": -0.303047, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.204688, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075776, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.268652, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215838, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.278937, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048878, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.295647, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.671844, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12755285, "relative_activity": 0.995748, "balance": 0.671844, "dry_up": 1.161682, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085639, "annualized_volatility": 0.33626, "from_high_reference": -0.376338, "from_low_reference": 0.085741 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.648333, "fair_value_reference": 15.929489, "structural_low": 10.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.004289, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.053667, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.050385, "worst_return": -0.216931, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.059482, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.206415, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.059482, "worst_return": -0.059482, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067431, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069945, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019871, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084755, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003036, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084373, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.184745, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-12-15", "close": 19.200001, "volume": 108495561, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-12-22", "close": 25.190001, "volume": 66039829, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": 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14.481097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.87, "volume": 17858175, "typical_volume": 12946712.1, "trend": 14.980333, "fair_value": 15.996815, "relative_strength": -31.934305, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.62343, "energy": 94.33179, "activity_lines": [ 11.996667, 12.782909, 13.61, 14.204989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.12, "volume": 16780069, "typical_volume": 13177748.55, "trend": 14.804, "fair_value": 15.960956, "relative_strength": -28.391469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.061161, "energy": 91.72115, "activity_lines": [ 11.558667, 12.397818, 13.317524, 13.955936 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.65, "volume": 12755285, "typical_volume": 12809755.6, "trend": 14.648333, "fair_value": 15.929489, "relative_strength": -27.893677, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.579785, "energy": 86.425064, "activity_lines": [ 11.452, 12.171273, 13.098905, 13.752452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }