{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0bb0075-d8d9-48b2-b698-9f3e9192f26b", "symbol": "ASAN", "name": "Asana\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 47.368, "architecture_energy": 51.445, "architecture_maturity": 34.813, "architecture_confidence": 50.249, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.5, "rotation_up": 65.51, "upward_expansion": 59.82, "deceleration": 22.16, "rotation_down": 21.41, "downward_expansion": 20.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.191333, 7.784182, 7.392667, 7.266 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.26, "trend_reference": 7.497, "distance_from_trend": 0.235161, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.412436, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.357499, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.364455, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.057078, "excess_performance": -0.068547, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.235161, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204647, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.357499, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.21844, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.193645, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.320493, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057078, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.970228, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22407463, "relative_activity": 0.733763, "balance": 1.970228, "dry_up": 0.902023, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.131889, "annualized_volatility": 0.65746, "from_high_reference": -0.410567, "from_low_reference": 0.72119 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.497, "fair_value_reference": 14.412436, "structural_low": 5.38, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.069277, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.096443, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.73741, "worst_return": -0.308326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.184813, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.282493, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.674101, "worst_return": -0.540746, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.225331, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.385566, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.310791, "worst_return": -0.522099, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.289342, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.492161, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.086331, "worst_return": -0.347418, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.096837, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.132374, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.449379, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.199172, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.110433, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.215728, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041066, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075269, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073755, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", 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"fair_value": 14.770385, "relative_strength": -38.549849, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.960649, "energy": 11.792508, "activity_lines": [ 7.21, 7.214364, 6.944095, 7.234022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.69, "volume": 24389827, "typical_volume": 30734684.25, "trend": 8.006333, "fair_value": 14.681218, "relative_strength": -33.398975, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.605082, "energy": 4.972761, "activity_lines": [ 7.376667, 7.322727, 7.024667, 7.199011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.86, "volume": 25595673, "typical_volume": 30058186.95, "trend": 7.775, "fair_value": 14.575513, "relative_strength": -39.155015, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.643252, "energy": 11.233451, "activity_lines": [ 7.246667, 7.260909, 7.023381, 7.125054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.32, "volume": 37790060, "typical_volume": 30651967.3, "trend": 7.620333, "fair_value": 14.487692, "relative_strength": -25.91826, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 16.506189, "energy": 14.343517, "activity_lines": [ 7.607333, 7.452545, 7.166381, 7.160215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.26, "volume": 22407463, "typical_volume": 30537752.2, "trend": 7.497, "fair_value": 14.412436, "relative_strength": -19.364455, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.368146, "energy": 51.445446, "activity_lines": [ 8.191333, 7.784182, 7.392667, 7.266 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }