{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0bbcdca-bf1d-467b-924e-9dbd659e8425", "symbol": "GLFL", "name": "Gujarat Lease Financing Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.589, "architecture_energy": 46.804, "architecture_maturity": 9.829, "architecture_confidence": 75.583, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.8, "rotation_up": 14.29, "upward_expansion": 22.55, "deceleration": 52.91, "rotation_down": 64.4, "downward_expansion": 47.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.418, 5.703818, 5.963286, 5.814473 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.2, "trend_reference": 5.608667, "distance_from_trend": -0.072863, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.467949, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.196036, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.007926, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.090147, "excess_performance": 0.133856, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072863, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053869, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.196036, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.345248, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.130079, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.378779, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.090147, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.782825, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22652, "relative_activity": 2.012795, "balance": 0.782825, "dry_up": 1.198418, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116124, "annualized_volatility": 0.895912, "from_high_reference": -0.443255, "from_low_reference": 0.420765 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.608667, "fair_value_reference": 6.467949, "structural_low": 3.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.150943, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.141986, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.278689, "worst_return": -0.119926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.02345, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.062985, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.183673, "worst_return": -0.167897, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.088561, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.082038, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.09434, "worst_return": 0.085714, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.054852, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.113367, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.018868, "worst_return": -0.128571, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.36, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.178082, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.193863, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.316742, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0848, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.352632, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.188764, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095541, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.167897, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.22973, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119424, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.299301, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.117148, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.0, "volume": 1365, "typical_volume": 14842.35, "trend": 2.788333, "fair_value": 2.857372, "relative_strength": -2.252543, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.99457, "energy": 19.144286, "activity_lines": [ 3.0, 3.011818, 2.960714, 2.87957 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 3.4, "volume": 7924, "typical_volume": 14045.25, "trend": 2.811667, "fair_value": 2.869872, "relative_strength": 10.883592, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.114109, "energy": 47.36835, "activity_lines": [ 3.143333, 3.081818, 3.010476, 2.919032 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 3.7, "volume": 66379, "typical_volume": 16905.6, "trend": 2.846667, "fair_value": 2.882692, "relative_strength": 19.254347, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.893339, "energy": 75.473436, "activity_lines": [ 3.353333, 3.2, 3.084524, 2.976344 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 3.7, "volume": 40878, "typical_volume": 18710.7, "trend": 2.883333, "fair_value": 2.894231, "relative_strength": 16.87748, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.27636, "energy": 15.193536, "activity_lines": [ 5.913333, 6.093818, 6.07819, 5.863892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.01, "volume": 6181, "typical_volume": 13033.7, "trend": 5.609, "fair_value": 6.435321, "relative_strength": -13.773084, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.752091, "energy": 40.833675, "activity_lines": [ 5.520667, 5.872364, 6.009381, 5.823183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.89, "volume": 21926, "typical_volume": 12464.65, "trend": 5.616, "fair_value": 6.455128, "relative_strength": -1.101586, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.812372, "energy": 34.214302, "activity_lines": [ 5.564, 5.846727, 6.022952, 5.841312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.2, "volume": 22652, "typical_volume": 11254.0, "trend": 5.608667, "fair_value": 6.467949, "relative_strength": -13.007926, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.588852, "energy": 46.803693, "activity_lines": [ 5.418, 5.703818, 5.963286, 5.814473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }