{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0c1d04d-8f2f-4765-bc09-6088c1a0cd4e", "symbol": "3664", "name": "Array Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.542, "architecture_energy": 53.196, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.588, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.93, "rotation_up": 22.2, "upward_expansion": 8.52, "deceleration": 45.61, "rotation_down": 56.45, "downward_expansion": 81.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.457333, 6.753273, 7.118476, 8.018882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.1, "trend_reference": 9.693667, "distance_from_trend": -0.370723, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.337885, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.714123, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -70.126897, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.593333, "excess_performance": -1.034705, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.370723, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.25664, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.714123, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107293, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.701269, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055128, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.593333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.591536, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24000, "relative_activity": 0.056706, "balance": 0.591536, "dry_up": 0.200887, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.22169, "annualized_volatility": 1.23005, "from_high_reference": -0.740426, "from_low_reference": 0.292373 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.693667, "fair_value_reference": 21.337885, "structural_low": 4.72, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.043807, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.046752, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.373102, "worst_return": -0.421053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.070969, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.127566, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.179842, "worst_return": -0.344086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.096552, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.15665, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.06867, "worst_return": -0.474138, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07804, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043554, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102004, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.077253, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064014, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", 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"trend": 10.839, "fair_value": 21.783461, "relative_strength": -70.04539, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.636769, "energy": 42.478465, "activity_lines": [ 6.908667, 7.129455, 7.543762, 8.780731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.16, "volume": 160009, "typical_volume": 457648.7, "trend": 10.442667, "fair_value": 21.622949, "relative_strength": -69.831747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.890773, "energy": 48.166723, "activity_lines": [ 6.572667, 6.901636, 7.334857, 8.47886 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.28, "volume": 44652, "typical_volume": 433149.25, "trend": 10.067, "fair_value": 21.475705, "relative_strength": -64.170868, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.574586, "energy": 49.153629, "activity_lines": [ 6.679333, 6.931818, 7.269952, 8.274817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 6.1, "volume": 24000, "typical_volume": 423236.25, "trend": 9.693667, "fair_value": 21.337885, "relative_strength": -70.126897, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.542037, "energy": 53.196456, "activity_lines": [ 6.457333, 6.753273, 7.118476, 8.018882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }