{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0c9b645-181b-45b0-b8e4-a91db9e08370", "symbol": "8936", "name": "Kuo Toong International Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.802, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.18, "architecture_energy": 23.074, "architecture_maturity": 10.27, "architecture_confidence": 59.439, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.34, "rotation_up": 15.53, "upward_expansion": 14.47, "deceleration": 61.65, "rotation_down": 59.46, "downward_expansion": 41.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.78, 53.305454, 53.832143, 53.483978 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 50.700001, "trend_reference": 53.09, "distance_from_trend": -0.045018, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 54.198183, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.064544, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.242031, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.007952, "excess_performance": -0.43342, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045018, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016973, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.064544, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024081, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.33242, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03841, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007952, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.462333, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6972676, "relative_activity": 0.338971, "balance": 1.462333, "dry_up": 0.271566, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089516, "annualized_volatility": 0.375532, "from_high_reference": -0.268398, "from_low_reference": 0.040735 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.09, "fair_value_reference": 54.198183, "structural_low": 49.099998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.036768, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.034876, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.103865, "worst_return": -0.085339, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.019675, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.069945, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.105263, "worst_return": -0.222717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.040925, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.125905, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.032783, "worst_return": -0.203196, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.001455, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.146207, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.012394, "worst_return": -0.009483, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.051602, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00789, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063098, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06308, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.096647, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074394, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040067, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085258, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101392, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046992, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045908, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084395, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055755, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021235, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 29.874527, "volume": 26000000, "typical_volume": 27555400.0, "trend": 26.7483, "fair_value": 21.281796, "relative_strength": 18.134235, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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37.854631, "activity_lines": [ 57.106666, 56.594545, 54.595476, 53.976667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.0, "volume": 9244700, "typical_volume": 22355756.65, "trend": 53.593333, "fair_value": 53.730444, "relative_strength": -29.500352, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.50148, "energy": 15.289398, "activity_lines": [ 55.373333, 55.988181, 54.437857, 53.862043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.5, "volume": 4449711, "typical_volume": 22213305.2, "trend": 53.466667, "fair_value": 53.837941, "relative_strength": -29.731152, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.795549, "energy": 16.7756, "activity_lines": [ 54.073333, 55.472727, 54.335952, 53.791505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.799999, "volume": 6730693, "typical_volume": 22017629.55, "trend": 53.286667, "fair_value": 53.951509, "relative_strength": -29.1037, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.182518, "energy": 16.632821, "activity_lines": [ 52.913333, 54.783636, 54.164047, 53.683978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.700001, "volume": 4191451, "typical_volume": 21113183.0, "trend": 53.213333, "fair_value": 54.074364, "relative_strength": -28.940529, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.870028, "energy": 16.639769, "activity_lines": [ 52.52, 54.229091, 54.086904, 53.646129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 50.700001, "volume": 6972676, "typical_volume": 20570108.45, "trend": 53.09, "fair_value": 54.198183, "relative_strength": -33.242031, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.179946, "energy": 23.074214, "activity_lines": [ 51.78, 53.305454, 53.832143, 53.483978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }