{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0ca219c-eb80-43ac-bc3e-89dc9400f00e", "symbol": "002188", "name": "Zhongtian Service Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.68, "architecture_energy": 53.795, "architecture_maturity": 43.389, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 22.56, "upward_expansion": 8.71, "deceleration": 58.28, "rotation_down": 57.03, "downward_expansion": 82.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.867333, 4.937455, 5.451524, 5.786108 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.22, "trend_reference": 6.164, "distance_from_trend": -0.153147, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.449936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.042191, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.154166, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.230088, "excess_performance": -0.237488, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.153147, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060938, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.042191, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.344712, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.171542, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135371, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.230088, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.289858, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51750089, "relative_activity": 1.003552, "balance": 0.289858, "dry_up": 1.106524, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110227, "annualized_volatility": 0.462338, "from_high_reference": -0.364964, "from_low_reference": 0.295285 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.164, "fair_value_reference": 5.449936, "structural_low": 4.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.015649, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.010876, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.143177, "worst_return": -0.117417, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.025974, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.008416, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.152778, "worst_return": -0.129032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.053241, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.096653, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.092532, "worst_return": -0.054705, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.251366, "energy": 88.259695, "activity_lines": [ 4.893333, 5.239091, 5.789762, 6.063914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.33, "volume": 64543244, "typical_volume": 51378784.55, "trend": 6.239333, "fair_value": 5.468141, "relative_strength": -29.570985, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.81918, "energy": 87.363862, "activity_lines": [ 4.678, 5.008545, 5.617905, 5.933978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.92, "volume": 56097800, "typical_volume": 51989623.65, "trend": 6.192667, "fair_value": 5.458718, "relative_strength": -18.271056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.3682, "energy": 72.265132, "activity_lines": [ 4.723333, 4.930364, 5.515333, 5.84886 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.22, "volume": 51750089, "typical_volume": 51566907.8, "trend": 6.164, "fair_value": 5.449936, "relative_strength": -17.154166, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.680087, "energy": 53.794847, "activity_lines": [ 4.867333, 4.937455, 5.451524, 5.786108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }