{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0d85f3e-4706-4fae-9f83-c1e3e46e85a8", "symbol": "KEL", "name": "Kelt Exploration Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.643, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.125, "architecture_energy": 48.46, "architecture_maturity": 29.915, "architecture_confidence": 82.694, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.97, "rotation_up": 60.94, "upward_expansion": 82.49, "deceleration": 48.01, "rotation_down": 12.54, "downward_expansion": 9.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.723333, 9.525818, 9.458238, 9.320387 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.48, "trend_reference": 9.037667, "distance_from_trend": 0.048943, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.044359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.345758, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.144621, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.183521, "excess_performance": 0.063099, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048943, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073612, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.345758, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097108, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031446, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102318, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.183521, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.911612, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2578300, "relative_activity": 1.062117, "balance": 0.911612, "dry_up": 1.171262, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075787, "annualized_volatility": 0.396078, "from_high_reference": -0.092823, "from_low_reference": 0.590604 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.037667, "fair_value_reference": 7.044359, "structural_low": 7.65, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.004966, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.014315, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.325269, "worst_return": -0.268107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.05004, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.014279, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.48494, "worst_return": -0.266758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.069482, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.050781, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.536145, "worst_return": -0.218659, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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6.961795, "relative_strength": 4.664851, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.925174, "energy": 19.111193, "activity_lines": [ 9.114667, 9.280182, 9.271714, 9.088172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.46, "volume": 2635800, "typical_volume": 2411860.0, "trend": 8.810333, "fair_value": 6.983269, "relative_strength": 6.631789, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.067819, "energy": 13.326211, "activity_lines": [ 9.212, 9.285273, 9.297, 9.134108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.1, "volume": 3335200, "typical_volume": 2490490.0, "trend": 8.895667, "fair_value": 7.008077, "relative_strength": 13.361764, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.561638, "energy": 32.693189, "activity_lines": [ 9.549333, 9.411636, 9.379524, 9.217312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.98, "volume": 2823700, "typical_volume": 2479380.0, "trend": 8.966667, "fair_value": 7.027628, "relative_strength": 12.318807, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.345958, "energy": 51.043094, "activity_lines": [ 9.765333, 9.514364, 9.44419, 9.287269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.48, "volume": 2578300, "typical_volume": 2427510.0, "trend": 9.037667, "fair_value": 7.044359, "relative_strength": 3.144621, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.124533, "energy": 48.460466, "activity_lines": [ 9.723333, 9.525818, 9.458238, 9.320387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }