{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0d9a795-36fb-4955-b10d-0432fe79d135", "symbol": "MF6", "name": "Mun Siong Engineering Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 58.934, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.077, "architecture_energy": 8.862, "architecture_maturity": 19.583, "architecture_confidence": 63.79, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.72, "rotation_up": 35.83, "upward_expansion": 55.0, "deceleration": 73.84, "rotation_down": 23.08, "downward_expansion": 21.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.029733, 0.029745, 0.029762, 0.029338 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.03, "trend_reference": 0.029133, "distance_from_trend": 0.029748, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.03152, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.048217, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.462148, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.071429, "excess_performance": -0.083407, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029748, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026726, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.048217, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.157655, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144621, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027214, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071429, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.757405, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 250100, "relative_activity": 0.209036, "balance": 0.757405, "dry_up": 2.28736, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.153846, "annualized_volatility": 0.742771, "from_high_reference": -0.375, "from_low_reference": 0.304348 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.029133, "fair_value_reference": 0.03152, "structural_low": 0.023, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.022225, "positive_rate": 0.296296, "directional_follow_through": 0.296296, "median_excess_return": -0.027512, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.230769, "worst_return": -0.157895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.036, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.077725, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.44, "worst_return": -0.264706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.140539, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.034483, "worst_return": -0.239135, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.176908, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.177741, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.185185, "worst_return": -0.289474, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.103448, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103448, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.194444, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09375, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.176471, 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.927301, "energy": 10.473217, "activity_lines": [ 0.03, 0.030582, 0.029424, 0.029301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.03, "volume": 502300, "typical_volume": 688160.0, "trend": 0.029633, "fair_value": 0.031898, "relative_strength": -12.202511, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.355692, "energy": 8.827659, "activity_lines": [ 0.029533, 0.030564, 0.029538, 0.029327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.028, "volume": 10506700, "typical_volume": 1189745.0, "trend": 0.0295, "fair_value": 0.031786, "relative_strength": -18.370326, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.574871, "energy": 19.874949, "activity_lines": [ 0.028533, 0.030109, 0.029452, 0.029222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.03, "volume": 190000, "typical_volume": 1197560.0, "trend": 0.029433, "fair_value": 0.031693, "relative_strength": -13.200444, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.700897, "energy": 13.391799, "activity_lines": [ 0.028733, 0.029982, 0.029567, 0.029254 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.03, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1190935.0, "trend": 0.029267, "fair_value": 0.031606, "relative_strength": -13.570036, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.890576, "energy": 12.299579, "activity_lines": [ 0.029333, 0.029891, 0.029671, 0.02929 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.03, "volume": 250100, "typical_volume": 1196445.0, "trend": 0.029133, "fair_value": 0.03152, "relative_strength": -14.462148, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.07676, "energy": 8.86176, "activity_lines": [ 0.029733, 0.029745, 0.029762, 0.029338 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }