{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0dba1b5-9e25-4d9e-9276-f7e6db00d526", "symbol": "E61Z", "name": "Global X E-commerce UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 48.124, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 63.662, "architecture_energy": 82.306, "architecture_maturity": 14.286, "architecture_confidence": 60.866, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.48, "rotation_up": 80.31, "upward_expansion": 68.26, "deceleration": 20.87, "rotation_down": 16.24, "downward_expansion": 26.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.301067, 11.994036, 11.669019, 11.55289 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.798, "trend_reference": 11.5968, "distance_from_trend": 0.10358, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.237686, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.138847, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.513219, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.065789, "excess_performance": 0.00115, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.10358, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039348, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.138847, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107564, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045132, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070552, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065789, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.9936, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3380, "relative_activity": 0.893908, "balance": 0.9936, "dry_up": 1.366251, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029764, "annualized_volatility": 0.212042, "from_high_reference": -0.10641, "from_low_reference": 0.207131 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.5968, "fair_value_reference": 11.237686, "structural_low": 10.602, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.045755, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.038994, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.084325, "worst_return": -0.010385, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.037615, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.038226, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.06896, "worst_return": 0.00627, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.056059, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000557, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.122329, "worst_return": -0.01021, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.124129, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091436, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041302, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05315, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057493, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009892, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"typical_volume": 3581.55, "trend": 11.735533, "fair_value": 11.138904, "relative_strength": -7.090312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 16.463606, "energy": 27.78146, "activity_lines": [ 11.604, 11.418, 11.311495, 11.409867 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.046, "volume": 1060, "typical_volume": 3579.0, "trend": 11.695933, "fair_value": 11.163263, "relative_strength": -5.365579, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.668252, "energy": 65.896977, "activity_lines": [ 11.804267, 11.551855, 11.388124, 11.429897 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.866, "volume": 8915, "typical_volume": 3642.4, "trend": 11.6556, "fair_value": 11.184, "relative_strength": -7.576014, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.762846, "energy": 66.042877, "activity_lines": [ 11.873867, 11.638909, 11.443876, 11.440869 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.22, "volume": 7309, "typical_volume": 3794.2, "trend": 11.626067, "fair_value": 11.208013, "relative_strength": -6.553583, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.830763, "energy": 73.64891, "activity_lines": [ 12.021467, 11.773564, 11.531286, 11.477282 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.798, "volume": 3380, "typical_volume": 3781.15, "trend": 11.5968, "fair_value": 11.237686, "relative_strength": -4.513219, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 63.662414, "energy": 82.30564, "activity_lines": [ 12.301067, 11.994036, 11.669019, 11.55289 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }