{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0e2dd55-eab3-4962-8fc6-62bc70079498", "symbol": "F3C", "name": "SFC Energy AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.479, "architecture_energy": 18.431, "architecture_maturity": 57.974, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.57, "rotation_up": 27.06, "upward_expansion": 53.82, "deceleration": 90.25, "rotation_down": 25.54, "downward_expansion": 17.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.082667, 20.147273, 20.138, 19.049462 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20.6, "trend_reference": 17.493667, "distance_from_trend": 0.177569, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.679936, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.102788, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 16.694015, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.567732, "excess_performance": 0.503092, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.177569, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.169389, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.102788, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.151077, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.16694, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090581, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.567732, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.361205, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 263708, "relative_activity": 0.896418, "balance": 3.361205, "dry_up": 0.800486, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117065, "annualized_volatility": 0.5812, "from_high_reference": -0.167677, "from_low_reference": 0.819788 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.493667, "fair_value_reference": 18.679936, "structural_low": 12.62, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.019464, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.004085, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.137615, "worst_return": -0.273289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.071058, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.003158, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.218349, "worst_return": -0.240268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.14349, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.174159, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.157767, "worst_return": -0.458613, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 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287685.75, "trend": 17.019333, "fair_value": 18.716474, "relative_strength": 19.477385, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.301367, "energy": 20.095321, "activity_lines": [ 19.662667, 20.316182, 19.842334, 18.638946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.05, "volume": 313144, "typical_volume": 287610.75, "trend": 17.267667, "fair_value": 18.693397, "relative_strength": 16.977485, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.727294, "energy": 16.404687, "activity_lines": [ 19.798, 20.150364, 19.976238, 18.834473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.6, "volume": 263708, "typical_volume": 294179.7, "trend": 17.493667, "fair_value": 18.679936, "relative_strength": 16.694015, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.479217, "energy": 18.430971, "activity_lines": [ 20.082667, 20.147273, 20.138, 19.049462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }