{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0e30574-3a93-4334-b8e3-b760482f1316", "symbol": "YADR", "name": "Adriano Care SOCIMI, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.917, "architecture_energy": 30.666, "architecture_maturity": 38.304, "architecture_confidence": 71.502, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.8, "rotation_up": 24.98, "upward_expansion": 22.34, "deceleration": 38.17, "rotation_down": 47.41, "downward_expansion": 57.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.95, 10.013636, 10.019286, 10.044839 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.45, "trend_reference": 10.083333, "distance_from_trend": -0.06281, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.512167, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.006536, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.939664, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.091346, "excess_performance": -0.215777, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06281, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00165, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.006536, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066585, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199397, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101427, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.091346, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.330203, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3678, "relative_activity": 2.977897, "balance": 0.330203, "dry_up": 2.752814, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027269, "annualized_volatility": 0.181665, "from_high_reference": -0.192308, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.083333, "fair_value_reference": 9.512167, "structural_low": 9.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.007227, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.050505, "worst_return": -0.079208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.047097, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.012261, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.09, "worst_return": -0.009804, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.065425, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.129351, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.096353, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.240369, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.096353, "worst_return": 0.096353, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086022, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04228, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005155, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028846, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009901, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation 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"relative_strength": -4.706828, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 52.50763, "energy": 58.672166, "activity_lines": [ 10.253333, 10.132727, 10.075714, 10.089247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.3, "volume": 4957, "typical_volume": 997.75, "trend": 10.1, "fair_value": 9.506534, "relative_strength": -11.200717, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.175002, "energy": 38.153362, "activity_lines": [ 10.306667, 10.174545, 10.098095, 10.102796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.85, "volume": 1589, "typical_volume": 1051.2, "trend": 10.098333, "fair_value": 9.510633, "relative_strength": -15.409662, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.208074, "energy": 22.597615, "activity_lines": [ 10.19, 10.129091, 10.077143, 10.086667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.45, "volume": 3678, "typical_volume": 1235.1, "trend": 10.083333, "fair_value": 9.512167, "relative_strength": -19.939664, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.917302, "energy": 30.666154, "activity_lines": [ 9.95, 10.013636, 10.019286, 10.044839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }