{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0e5e288-6519-4c22-bd5c-a30947b553f4", "symbol": "BC8", "name": "Bechtle AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 77.48, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 59.42, "architecture_energy": 74.261, "architecture_maturity": 16.426, "architecture_confidence": 57.815, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.23, "rotation_up": 72.49, "upward_expansion": 60.83, "deceleration": 26.6, "rotation_down": 18.84, "downward_expansion": 26.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.622667, 32.985321, 31.806758, 31.588297 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 37.720001, "trend_reference": 32.648796, "distance_from_trend": 0.155326, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 38.223524, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.013173, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.683956, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.008933, "excess_performance": -0.18318, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.155326, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089966, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.013173, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.196922, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14684, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.165145, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008933, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.371461, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.371461, "dry_up": 0.508581, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054045, "annualized_volatility": 0.492757, "from_high_reference": -0.161778, "from_low_reference": 0.527125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.648796, "fair_value_reference": 38.223524, "structural_low": 24.700001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.019304, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.001634, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.164161, "worst_return": -0.157548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.026752, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.009139, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.112959, "worst_return": -0.233273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.036678, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.10818, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.10505, "worst_return": -0.259446, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053534, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075626, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016275, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118981, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045894, "active": false 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"relative_strength": -30.291742, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.801252, "energy": 20.341276, "activity_lines": [ 30.642667, 30.744729, 30.380241, 31.194859 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.58, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 316.4, "trend": 33.105463, "fair_value": 38.257594, "relative_strength": -27.43788, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.477569, "energy": 6.910457, "activity_lines": [ 30.944, 30.90615, 30.513651, 31.071281 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.240002, "volume": 323, "typical_volume": 332.55, "trend": 32.840796, "fair_value": 38.245924, "relative_strength": -16.215826, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 23.439889, "energy": 29.133298, "activity_lines": [ 32.721334, 31.86699, 31.100776, 31.273509 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.720001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 317.55, "trend": 32.648796, "fair_value": 38.223524, "relative_strength": -14.683956, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 59.419609, "energy": 74.260663, "activity_lines": [ 34.622667, 32.985321, 31.806758, 31.588297 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }