{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0e77e24-9094-4009-a16e-548980d84a54", "symbol": "CIDMEGA", "name": "Grupe, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -90.327, "architecture_energy": 76.593, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.587, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.52, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 56.99, "downward_expansion": 80.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.393334, 19.437455, 19.780191, 20.586086 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.200001, "trend_reference": 21.738667, "distance_from_trend": -0.116781, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.701795, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.374629, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.271717, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.205298, "excess_performance": -0.150631, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116781, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076967, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.374629, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022826, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.212717, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084053, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.205298, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 113, "relative_activity": 0.068779, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.04778, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006571, "annualized_volatility": 0.190753, "from_high_reference": -0.344486, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.738667, "fair_value_reference": 30.701795, "structural_low": 19.200001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.000287, "positive_rate": 0.076923, "directional_follow_through": 0.564103, "median_excess_return": -0.007153, "regime_survival": 0.897436, "best_return": 0.041374, "worst_return": -0.106029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.031684, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.036818, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.034676, "worst_return": -0.138955, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.055763, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.10752, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.034107, "worst_return": -0.217269, "sufficient": 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00027, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.086993, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-30", 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19.563818, 20.398619, 21.303935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.49, "volume": 201, "typical_volume": 1674.6, "trend": 22.289333, "fair_value": 31.040256, "relative_strength": -22.414319, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.324844, "energy": 88.545925, "activity_lines": [ 19.49, 19.515273, 20.218286, 21.111699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.49, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1647.7, "trend": 22.109, "fair_value": 30.928013, "relative_strength": -21.247795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.983851, "energy": 88.060611, "activity_lines": [ 19.49, 19.491091, 20.057524, 20.931097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.49, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1637.3, "trend": 21.928667, "fair_value": 30.815833, "relative_strength": -20.987979, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.664507, "energy": 87.628078, "activity_lines": [ 19.49, 19.490545, 19.92181, 20.762129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.200001, "volume": 113, "typical_volume": 1642.95, "trend": 21.738667, "fair_value": 30.701795, "relative_strength": -21.271717, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.327355, "energy": 76.592507, "activity_lines": [ 19.393334, 19.437455, 19.780191, 20.586086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }