{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0e98da1-f936-4bfd-b8b0-beb80cdff218", "symbol": "301185", "name": "Shandong Ouma Software Co. Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.359, "architecture_energy": 22.937, "architecture_maturity": 86.65, "architecture_confidence": 71.866, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.95, "rotation_up": 26.84, "upward_expansion": 19.58, "deceleration": 46.86, "rotation_down": 26.58, "downward_expansion": 55.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.113334, 15.864771, 16.289364, 17.018716 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.450001, "trend_reference": 18.064988, "distance_from_trend": -0.089399, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.540074, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.112733, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.422479, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.190851, "excess_performance": -0.198251, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089399, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064535, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.112733, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0494, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154225, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086396, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.190851, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.861611, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13925011, "relative_activity": 1.349674, "balance": 0.861611, "dry_up": 1.266121, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083604, "annualized_volatility": 0.307775, "from_high_reference": -0.312291, "from_low_reference": 0.177523 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.064988, "fair_value_reference": 18.540074, "structural_low": 13.97, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.041146, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.024135, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.424069, "worst_return": -0.132117, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.068513, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.002845, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.335949, "worst_return": -0.303318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.02651, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.07382, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.145084, "worst_return": -0.198104, "sufficient": false }, { 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.577296, "energy": 54.832647, "activity_lines": [ 15.340667, 15.677816, 16.568026, 17.411036 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.53, "volume": 10220859, "typical_volume": 10609892.4, "trend": 18.226321, "fair_value": 18.70169, "relative_strength": -18.515995, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.317791, "energy": 48.718723, "activity_lines": [ 15.365333, 15.592693, 16.389551, 17.230306 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.65, "volume": 16396406, "typical_volume": 10492488.7, "trend": 18.153321, "fair_value": 18.616354, "relative_strength": -10.699308, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.567787, "energy": 32.171686, "activity_lines": [ 15.830667, 15.743416, 16.340886, 17.128607 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.450001, "volume": 13925011, "typical_volume": 10317317.4, "trend": 18.064988, "fair_value": 18.540074, "relative_strength": -15.422479, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.358638, "energy": 22.936696, "activity_lines": [ 16.113334, 15.864771, 16.289364, 17.018716 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }