{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0e99896-a790-475c-bd58-a54c1f9b663e", "symbol": "ADSK", "name": "Autodesk Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 75.577, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 0.215, "architecture_energy": 15.816, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 62.862, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.85, "rotation_up": 42.0, "upward_expansion": 26.84, "deceleration": 41.0, "rotation_down": 12.41, "downward_expansion": 47.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 230.44, 219.754, 221.968905, 226.452882 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 249.08, "trend_reference": 233.418667, "distance_from_trend": 0.067095, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 259.552404, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.040348, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.039307, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.036106, "excess_performance": -0.151347, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067095, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104006, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.040348, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01334, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.180393, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104304, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.036106, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.018667, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8613337, "relative_activity": 0.748867, "balance": 1.018667, "dry_up": 0.944554, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087482, "annualized_volatility": 0.419322, "from_high_reference": -0.243125, "from_low_reference": 0.342749 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 233.418667, "fair_value_reference": 259.552404, "structural_low": 185.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.038753, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.041721, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.232831, "worst_return": -0.14876, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.065118, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.096829, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.158852, "worst_return": -0.245027, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.030254, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.072029, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.424254, "worst_return": -0.314993, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -56.142251, "energy": 39.993352, "activity_lines": [ 208.955333, 210.557273, 220.77581, 227.51443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 209.75, "volume": 10525053, "typical_volume": 11378585.2, "trend": 236.067667, "fair_value": 259.079647, "relative_strength": -28.252606, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.207315, "energy": 28.401141, "activity_lines": [ 210.581333, 209.390545, 218.959143, 225.620903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 234.2, "volume": 13554904, "typical_volume": 11620471.95, "trend": 234.316667, "fair_value": 259.288814, "relative_strength": -19.61127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.214071, "energy": 15.304579, "activity_lines": [ 219.295333, 213.157818, 219.715048, 225.500409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 249.08, "volume": 8613337, "typical_volume": 11501820.15, "trend": 233.418667, "fair_value": 259.552404, "relative_strength": -18.039307, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.214869, "energy": 15.816253, "activity_lines": [ 230.44, 219.754, 221.968905, 226.452882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }