{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0ed23ee-e1b1-4bd5-a116-92be65ff4f56", "symbol": "H12", "name": "Hotel Royal Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 13.776, "architecture_energy": 18.662, "architecture_maturity": 53.621, "architecture_confidence": 75.777, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.8, "rotation_up": 25.87, "upward_expansion": 52.53, "deceleration": 76.87, "rotation_down": 38.46, "downward_expansion": 28.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.113333, 2.135273, 2.146174, 2.119952 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.15, "trend_reference": 2.090509, "distance_from_trend": 0.028458, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.843896, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.166009, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.892531, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.05262, "excess_performance": -0.102215, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028458, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021529, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.166009, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046305, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118925, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139775, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.05262, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.721932, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4500, "relative_activity": 0.199291, "balance": 0.721932, "dry_up": 0.566873, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032902, "annualized_volatility": 0.216051, "from_high_reference": -0.076727, "from_low_reference": 0.159002 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.090509, "fair_value_reference": 1.843896, "structural_low": 1.855044, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.003247, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.019751, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.025511, "worst_return": -0.012739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.005781, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.018733, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.040816, "worst_return": -0.017334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.022407, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.054223, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.061224, "worst_return": -0.045455, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 2.086357, "fair_value": 1.842031, "relative_strength": -13.360988, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.261694, "energy": 16.531522, "activity_lines": [ 2.15, 2.163091, 2.149783, 2.119498 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.03, "volume": 4100, "typical_volume": 24435.0, "trend": 2.086597, "fair_value": 1.842579, "relative_strength": -16.056279, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -9.207513, "energy": 16.051249, "activity_lines": [ 2.109333, 2.136545, 2.142282, 2.115862 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.15, "volume": 4500, "typical_volume": 22580.0, "trend": 2.090509, "fair_value": 1.843896, "relative_strength": -11.892531, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.776045, "energy": 18.662195, "activity_lines": [ 2.113333, 2.135273, 2.146174, 2.119952 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }