{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0efbf34-9a34-4780-9a82-e36cbd4e41a1", "symbol": "FFEM", "name": "FIDELITY FUNDAMENTAL EMERGING MARKETS ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.572, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.666, "architecture_energy": 15.645, "architecture_maturity": 58.001, "architecture_confidence": 89.486, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.23, "rotation_up": 21.51, "upward_expansion": 47.46, "deceleration": 84.81, "rotation_down": 32.83, "downward_expansion": 25.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.014087, 41.545896, 41.559897, 40.573416 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 41.5709, "trend_reference": 39.294868, "distance_from_trend": 0.057922, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.587996, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.316035, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.184235, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.122042, "excess_performance": -0.003583, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057922, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082768, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.316035, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127056, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031842, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153675, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.122042, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.07668, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51334, "relative_activity": 0.608134, "balance": 2.07668, "dry_up": 1.501858, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060892, "annualized_volatility": 0.29648, "from_high_reference": -0.088757, "from_low_reference": 0.455709 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.294868, "fair_value_reference": 31.587996, "structural_low": 33.63391, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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31.162843, "relative_strength": 9.74722, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.343436, "energy": 43.216516, "activity_lines": [ 42.796654, 42.633602, 41.280434, 40.058111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.1858, "volume": 77592, "typical_volume": 83441.35, "trend": 38.624733, "fair_value": 31.266556, "relative_strength": 4.81406, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.677131, "energy": 22.430553, "activity_lines": [ 41.837933, 42.212583, 41.323351, 40.175401 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.2484, "volume": 214288, "typical_volume": 87396.9, "trend": 38.857444, "fair_value": 31.368622, "relative_strength": 5.236181, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.100755, "energy": 20.454631, "activity_lines": [ 41.084013, 41.855367, 41.364819, 40.280154 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.91, "volume": 163887, "typical_volume": 85991.15, "trend": 39.077895, "fair_value": 31.475829, "relative_strength": 5.43467, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.452618, "energy": 18.348821, "activity_lines": [ 40.872733, 41.633398, 41.44493, 40.412577 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.5709, "volume": 51334, "typical_volume": 84412.25, "trend": 39.294868, "fair_value": 31.587996, "relative_strength": 3.184235, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.666111, "energy": 15.644955, "activity_lines": [ 41.014087, 41.545896, 41.559897, 40.573416 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }