{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0f3dc1a-ab80-49ab-97fe-329ddde86ee5", "symbol": "603429", "name": "Anhui Genuine NewMaterials Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.459, "architecture_energy": 70.7, "architecture_maturity": 36.413, "architecture_confidence": 86.991, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.14, "rotation_up": 10.86, "upward_expansion": 15.63, "deceleration": 38.66, "rotation_down": 73.58, "downward_expansion": 91.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.463333, 7.938909, 8.616619, 8.985914 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 7.57, "trend_reference": 9.524, "distance_from_trend": -0.205166, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.895435, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.041218, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.700332, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.329495, "excess_performance": -0.286291, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.205166, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05703, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.041218, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.304867, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.237003, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140757, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.329495, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.501494, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12655912, "relative_activity": 0.64278, "balance": 0.501494, "dry_up": 0.888483, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137791, "annualized_volatility": 0.483651, "from_high_reference": -0.471738, "from_low_reference": 0.081429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.524, "fair_value_reference": 7.895435, "structural_low": 7.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.013204, "positive_rate": 0.378378, "directional_follow_through": 0.594595, "median_excess_return": -0.011879, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.46683, "worst_return": -0.307206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.051559, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.008749, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.214789, "worst_return": -0.313527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.177446, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.190186, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.075208, "worst_return": -0.348921, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 8.163333, 8.655273, 9.144571, 9.427333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.3, "volume": 19268714, "typical_volume": 23309554.4, "trend": 9.687, "fair_value": 7.924905, "relative_strength": -24.714519, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.477229, "energy": 81.371374, "activity_lines": [ 7.724667, 8.354182, 8.950048, 9.26714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.36, "volume": 19641485, "typical_volume": 22569723.3, "trend": 9.602, "fair_value": 7.913106, "relative_strength": -24.137613, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.06299, "energy": 78.548663, "activity_lines": [ 7.509333, 8.106727, 8.769286, 9.117011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.57, "volume": 12655912, "typical_volume": 19689328.4, "trend": 9.524, "fair_value": 7.895435, "relative_strength": -23.700332, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.4593, "energy": 70.700339, "activity_lines": [ 7.463333, 7.938909, 8.616619, 8.985914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }