{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0fe525e-2d50-4059-a473-c4c54ea7f243", "symbol": "DB41", "name": "Xtrackers - MSCI EM Asia Swap UCITS ETF", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.251, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.763, "architecture_energy": 26.109, "architecture_maturity": 66.102, "architecture_confidence": 74.619, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.95, "rotation_up": 21.18, "upward_expansion": 55.13, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 36.23, "downward_expansion": 18.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 87.055335, 88.84782, 88.455096, 85.81727 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 87.620003, "trend_reference": 82.367334, "distance_from_trend": 0.063771, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 61.453878, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.425785, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.277988, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.170921, "excess_performance": -0.003326, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063771, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091874, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.425785, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097616, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05278, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148779, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.170921, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.563418, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.563418, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049664, "annualized_volatility": 0.263415, "from_high_reference": -0.096328, "from_low_reference": 0.416882 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 82.367334, "fair_value_reference": 61.453878, "structural_low": 70.029999, "invalidation": "A 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.02475, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025071, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.134974, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045624, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.126846, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": 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88.561757, "energy": 91.589496, "activity_lines": [ 92.605335, 90.066728, 84.838762, 81.819183 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 91.209999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 429.25, "trend": 78.582334, "fair_value": 59.923526, "relative_strength": 2.501382, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.732337, "energy": 66.031621, "activity_lines": [ 92.510001, 90.699455, 85.778381, 82.682344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 92.82, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 429.25, "trend": 79.371, "fair_value": 60.212276, "relative_strength": 1.691559, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.124245, "energy": 65.054981, "activity_lines": [ 92.740001, 91.438364, 86.793334, 83.600904 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 91.720001, "volume": 654, "typical_volume": 461.95, "trend": 80.176334, "fair_value": 60.488013, "relative_strength": 1.641703, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.374469, "energy": 61.674182, "activity_lines": [ 92.545334, 91.780546, 87.625619, 84.397613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 85.730003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 418.35, "trend": 80.764667, "fair_value": 60.729455, "relative_strength": -3.161421, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.119505, "energy": 37.919819, "activity_lines": [ 90.194668, 90.854183, 87.824048, 84.755915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 86.93, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 418.35, "trend": 81.392334, "fair_value": 60.96266, "relative_strength": -3.188409, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.926656, "energy": 25.597037, "activity_lines": [ 88.638668, 90.194728, 88.104572, 85.153678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 85.940002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 332.55, "trend": 81.882001, "fair_value": 61.198333, "relative_strength": -4.272883, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.882115, "energy": 25.461762, "activity_lines": [ 87.391335, 89.349456, 88.227477, 85.447076 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 87.620003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 288.95, "trend": 82.367334, "fair_value": 61.453878, "relative_strength": -5.277988, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.76311, "energy": 26.108691, "activity_lines": [ 87.055335, 88.84782, 88.455096, 85.81727 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }