{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e101eaf9-faa9-4f51-904e-7a9529f6230d", "symbol": "SPIR", "name": "Spire Global Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.397, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.522, "architecture_energy": 53.123, "architecture_maturity": 6.983, "architecture_confidence": 62.048, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.47, "rotation_up": 14.62, "upward_expansion": 26.17, "deceleration": 49.69, "rotation_down": 66.33, "downward_expansion": 53.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.629333, 14.098727, 16.140619, 15.823527 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.33, "trend_reference": 14.885, "distance_from_trend": -0.037286, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.855587, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.320058, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.660015, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.362167, "excess_performance": 0.236542, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037286, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.179352, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.320058, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.547939, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.0166, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.444715, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.362167, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.853614, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2958708, "relative_activity": 0.391419, "balance": 1.853614, "dry_up": 0.527321, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.248196, "annualized_volatility": 1.03887, "from_high_reference": -0.447358, "from_low_reference": 1.171212 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.885, "fair_value_reference": 10.855587, "structural_low": 8.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.07667, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.113788, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.315417, "worst_return": 0.065344, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.589263, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.527312, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.906648, "worst_return": 0.271879, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.405867, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.264846, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.657709, "worst_return": 0.154026, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.288543, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.113327, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.288543, "worst_return": 0.288543, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08326, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065344, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.339578, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.143119, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.164823, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.229185, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.107465, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.134983, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.586081, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.169432, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.34202, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.192332, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.325353, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.250436, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.0688, "volume": 5614543, "typical_volume": 6180620.4, "trend": 6.04752, "fair_value": 36.326756, "relative_strength": -39.886473, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.684879, "energy": 14.153881, "activity_lines": [ 5.20032, 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"fair_value": 10.721705, "relative_strength": -10.385767, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.461684, "energy": 21.291572, "activity_lines": [ 15.091333, 16.722, 17.441857, 16.284065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.99, "volume": 4781901, "typical_volume": 7625420.55, "trend": 14.635, "fair_value": 10.757959, "relative_strength": -18.152395, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.278095, "energy": 49.358794, "activity_lines": [ 13.385333, 15.448545, 16.892667, 16.055892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.46, "volume": 2872863, "typical_volume": 7643250.5, "trend": 14.756667, "fair_value": 10.796549, "relative_strength": -15.551841, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.95047, "energy": 58.55751, "activity_lines": [ 12.368, 14.424545, 16.381381, 15.851054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.33, "volume": 2958708, "typical_volume": 7558920.4, "trend": 14.885, "fair_value": 10.855587, "relative_strength": 1.660015, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.52218, "energy": 53.122985, "activity_lines": [ 12.629333, 14.098727, 16.140619, 15.823527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }