{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e1095827-c3aa-4e6e-877e-2ba2d2ae7800",
    "symbol": "GAGS",
    "name": "Gurktaler Aktiengesellschaft",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -57.722,
    "architecture_energy": 77.886,
    "architecture_maturity": 6.127,
    "architecture_confidence": 79.881,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 14.07,
        "rotation_up": 16.03,
        "upward_expansion": 24.9,
        "deceleration": 43.04,
        "rotation_down": 82.15,
        "downward_expansion": 68.9
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        16.606666,
        17.032727,
        17.237143,
        17.257204
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 16.299999,
    "trend_reference": 17.186667,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.05159,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 13.302686,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.225316,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -21.993746,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.012121,
    "excess_performance": -0.186368,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.05159,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.033888,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.225316,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.158462,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.219937,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.119943,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.012121,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.616505,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 0,
      "relative_activity": 0.0,
      "balance": 0.616505,
      "dry_up": 1.070429,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.024068,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.275973,
      "from_high_reference": -0.259572,
      "from_low_reference": 0.086667
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 17.186667,
      "fair_value_reference": 13.302686,
      "structural_low": 16.1,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.125,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.111111,
        "median_excess_return": 0.192984,
        "regime_survival": 0.444444,
        "best_return": 1.0,
        "worst_return": -0.026316,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.208333,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.2,
        "median_excess_return": 0.254604,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 1.537313,
        "worst_return": -0.103283,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.955224,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.2,
        "median_excess_return": 0.787608,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 1.75,
        "worst_return": -0.118228,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.433892,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.448263,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 1.417019,
        "worst_return": -0.028556,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-14",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.347059,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-04-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.18018,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-02",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.221374,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.125828,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-09-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.125,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-09-12",
        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.100332,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-11-07",
        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-12-12",
        "end": "2026-01-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-01-09",
        "end": "2026-01-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.058824,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-01-23",
        "end": "2026-01-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-01-30",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-06-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.088235,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-06-19",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.118919,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 11.527761,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 154.8,
        "trend": 12.842778,
        "fair_value": 10.547738,
        "relative_strength": -19.079591,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -26.321252,
        "energy": 48.871136,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-01",
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      {
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      {
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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      },
      {
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          16.789032
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 18.0,
        "volume": 560,
        "typical_volume": 162.4,
        "trend": 16.463333,
        "fair_value": 13.007868,
        "relative_strength": -9.99948,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.029909,
        "energy": 36.003491,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.4,
          17.361818,
          17.203333,
          16.894409
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 17.0,
        "volume": 80,
        "typical_volume": 164.4,
        "trend": 16.523333,
        "fair_value": 13.001893,
        "relative_strength": -14.494021,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.80714,
        "energy": 21.310149,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.266667,
          17.281818,
          17.209048,
          16.929032
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 17.0,
        "volume": 90,
        "typical_volume": 163.5,
        "trend": 16.573333,
        "fair_value": 13.01015,
        "relative_strength": -15.980282,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 33.426809,
        "energy": 18.563702,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.2,
          17.218182,
          17.207619,
          16.959785
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 17.0,
        "volume": 20,
        "typical_volume": 161.8,
        "trend": 16.623333,
        "fair_value": 13.047966,
        "relative_strength": -17.925965,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 23.254475,
        "energy": 15.271068,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.133333,
          17.181818,
          17.199048,
          16.987312
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 17.6,
        "volume": 1,
        "typical_volume": 147.9,
        "trend": 16.693333,
        "fair_value": 13.089627,
        "relative_strength": -13.950844,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 57.07352,
        "energy": 24.404223,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.266667,
          17.254545,
          17.247619,
          17.050323
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 18.5,
        "volume": 365,
        "typical_volume": 160.65,
        "trend": 16.796667,
        "fair_value": 13.109689,
        "relative_strength": -11.004429,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 80.919403,
        "energy": 63.761119,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.66,
          17.48,
          17.374286,
          17.166882
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 18.5,
        "volume": 100,
        "typical_volume": 158.15,
        "trend": 16.896667,
        "fair_value": 13.129751,
        "relative_strength": -13.881387,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 85.311537,
        "energy": 87.804356,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.02,
          17.678182,
          17.490476,
          17.276774
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 18.4,
        "volume": 54,
        "typical_volume": 149.35,
        "trend": 16.976667,
        "fair_value": 13.154646,
        "relative_strength": -11.972536,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 74.581715,
        "energy": 88.312127,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.246667,
          17.849091,
          17.594762,
          17.373763
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 17.0,
        "volume": 40,
        "typical_volume": 150.35,
        "trend": 17.026667,
        "fair_value": 13.181513,
        "relative_strength": -19.809153,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 43.547129,
        "energy": 60.793613,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.913333,
          17.74,
          17.556667,
          17.375269
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 17.0,
        "volume": 20,
        "typical_volume": 143.85,
        "trend": 17.076667,
        "fair_value": 13.197434,
        "relative_strength": -18.254015,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 21.431637,
        "energy": 19.456129,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.58,
          17.630909,
          17.514286,
          17.373548
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 17.200001,
        "volume": 15,
        "typical_volume": 122.45,
        "trend": 17.133333,
        "fair_value": 13.209162,
        "relative_strength": -15.263061,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 12.8318,
        "energy": 21.362342,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.353334,
          17.558182,
          17.488572,
          17.381505
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 17.0,
        "volume": 394,
        "typical_volume": 136.45,
        "trend": 17.183333,
        "fair_value": 13.244241,
        "relative_strength": -17.071576,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -16.823196,
        "energy": 33.907416,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.146667,
          17.463637,
          17.442857,
          17.372903
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 16.299999,
        "volume": 50,
        "typical_volume": 107.45,
        "trend": 17.21,
        "fair_value": 13.272095,
        "relative_strength": -20.049057,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -46.735071,
        "energy": 53.304121,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.806667,
          17.241818,
          17.334762,
          17.315914
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 16.299999,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 107.2,
        "trend": 17.186667,
        "fair_value": 13.302686,
        "relative_strength": -21.993746,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -57.721512,
        "energy": 77.885959,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.606666,
          17.032727,
          17.237143,
          17.257204
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}