{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e10f4c93-a012-4710-a16f-3125e3e296ec", "symbol": "EGRA", "name": "WisdomTree Eurozone Quality Dividend Growth UCITS ETF - EUR Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.629, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.036, "architecture_energy": 59.631, "architecture_maturity": 37.266, "architecture_confidence": 73.605, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.42, "rotation_up": 54.66, "upward_expansion": 80.04, "deceleration": 60.88, "rotation_down": 25.71, "downward_expansion": 9.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.074333, 28.948363, 28.480904, 28.018591 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 29.764999, "trend_reference": 27.599333, "distance_from_trend": 0.078468, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.176923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.182233, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.534387, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.086512, "excess_performance": -0.08438, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078468, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032626, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.182233, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074793, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045344, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027151, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086512, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.610299, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 550, "relative_activity": 0.632002, "balance": 1.610299, "dry_up": 0.686872, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021411, "annualized_volatility": 0.171898, "from_high_reference": -0.001007, "from_low_reference": 0.225906 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.599333, "fair_value_reference": 25.176923, "structural_low": 24.280001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.00106, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005515, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.050546, "worst_return": -0.105244, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.01473, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.04406, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.068521, "worst_return": -0.093883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.037468, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.062402, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.082548, "worst_return": -0.034772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.055821, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.107276, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.095424, "worst_return": -0.167393, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013387, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024961, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035122, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": 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64.087086, "energy": 72.438497, "activity_lines": [ 28.848333, 28.614364, 27.914619, 27.618043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.549999, "volume": 206, "typical_volume": 978.65, "trend": 27.381833, "fair_value": 25.0675, "relative_strength": -5.7276, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.800054, "energy": 48.789053, "activity_lines": [ 28.743, 28.656545, 28.026619, 27.697892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.66, "volume": 419, "typical_volume": 946.65, "trend": 27.456666, "fair_value": 25.09875, "relative_strength": -4.990118, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.263342, "energy": 41.893889, "activity_lines": [ 28.679667, 28.697818, 28.146476, 27.780355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.91, "volume": 1216, "typical_volume": 992.55, "trend": 27.525666, "fair_value": 25.135641, "relative_strength": -4.667728, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.94384, "energy": 39.400326, "activity_lines": [ 28.744667, 28.755091, 28.280047, 27.874118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.764999, "volume": 550, "typical_volume": 870.25, "trend": 27.599333, "fair_value": 25.176923, "relative_strength": -4.534387, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.035767, "energy": 59.631131, "activity_lines": [ 29.074333, 28.948363, 28.480904, 28.018591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }