{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e110396e-9f5c-4e42-98e0-5d29c4b089bc", "symbol": "PSFO", "name": "PACER SWAN SOS FLEX (OCTOBER) ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.86, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.669, "architecture_energy": 84.785, "architecture_maturity": 41.891, "architecture_confidence": 82.959, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.14, "rotation_up": 68.08, "upward_expansion": 93.32, "deceleration": 45.71, "rotation_down": 24.48, "downward_expansion": 17.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.973867, 34.778382, 34.47729, 34.009085 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 35.3555, "trend_reference": 33.470823, "distance_from_trend": 0.056308, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.260542, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.2083, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.826273, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.082532, "excess_performance": -0.043093, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056308, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024897, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.2083, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007066, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.038263, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002138, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.082532, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 25.446482, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45430, "relative_activity": 2.902829, "balance": 25.446482, "dry_up": 0.761106, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010012, "annualized_volatility": 0.081152, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.148529 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.470823, "fair_value_reference": 29.260542, "structural_low": 31.0934, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.009661, "positive_rate": 0.722222, "directional_follow_through": 0.722222, "median_excess_return": -0.004138, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.030249, "worst_return": -0.035192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.031875, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.012774, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.063238, "worst_return": -0.020949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.062122, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.034577, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.08446, "worst_return": 0.008821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-3.365353, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.989693, "energy": 71.306142, "activity_lines": [ 34.551267, 34.461322, 33.985584, 33.586823 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.705, "volume": 1184, "typical_volume": 14326.8, "trend": 33.232623, "fair_value": 29.064188, "relative_strength": -2.09462, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.864237, "energy": 77.518403, "activity_lines": [ 34.625333, 34.519335, 34.10647, 33.686953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.6225, "volume": 274, "typical_volume": 13773.8, "trend": 33.300207, "fair_value": 29.126447, "relative_strength": -1.673813, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.69715, "energy": 81.050084, "activity_lines": [ 34.647567, 34.551707, 34.209523, 33.776622 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.932, "volume": 758, "typical_volume": 13496.1, "trend": 33.384113, "fair_value": 29.192256, "relative_strength": -1.768971, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.360713, "energy": 82.98022, "activity_lines": [ 34.769867, 34.631909, 34.33047, 33.881899 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.3555, "volume": 45430, "typical_volume": 15650.25, "trend": 33.470823, "fair_value": 29.260542, "relative_strength": -3.826273, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.668847, "energy": 84.784738, "activity_lines": [ 34.973867, 34.778382, 34.47729, 34.009085 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }