{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e113dab6-e1d0-4b0d-821a-8f310f6449c7", "symbol": "MEMS", "name": "MATTHEWS EMERGING MARKETS DISCOVERY ACTIVE ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.332, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 12.767, "architecture_energy": 22.018, "architecture_maturity": 61.147, "architecture_confidence": 88.522, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.27, "rotation_up": 22.63, "upward_expansion": 45.96, "deceleration": 81.98, "rotation_down": 44.08, "downward_expansion": 35.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.842287, 30.339516, 30.542994, 29.977901 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 30.7959, "trend_reference": 29.173573, "distance_from_trend": 0.055609, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.492321, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.208046, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.626446, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.133244, "excess_performance": -0.05421, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055609, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061097, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.208046, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080753, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026264, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044267, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.133244, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.815163, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10912, "relative_activity": 1.710211, "balance": 0.815163, "dry_up": 1.060575, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044464, "annualized_volatility": 0.275828, "from_high_reference": -0.054325, "from_low_reference": 0.250052 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.173573, "fair_value_reference": 25.492321, "structural_low": 25.15, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.039157, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.01461, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.195207, "worst_return": -0.047621, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.116712, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.026224, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.203536, "worst_return": 0.029887, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.175347, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.098249, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.175347, "worst_return": 0.175347, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.260386, "energy": 48.562667, "activity_lines": [ 31.45774, 31.29746, 30.412996, 29.590406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.4125, "volume": 1079, "typical_volume": 6060.5, "trend": 28.65314, "fair_value": 25.366727, "relative_strength": -1.481323, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.109598, "energy": 45.169929, "activity_lines": [ 31.490993, 31.334469, 30.59563, 29.782391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.588, "volume": 3290, "typical_volume": 6128.05, "trend": 28.797977, "fair_value": 25.398706, "relative_strength": -3.035101, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.440459, "energy": 22.034913, "activity_lines": [ 30.828833, 31.027684, 30.592633, 29.842704 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.0865, "volume": 10535, "typical_volume": 6068.25, "trend": 28.915193, "fair_value": 25.426434, "relative_strength": -3.015177, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.885802, "energy": 15.729341, "activity_lines": [ 30.138647, 30.676116, 30.537718, 29.861319 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.9517, "volume": 2331, "typical_volume": 6077.35, "trend": 29.025377, "fair_value": 25.452742, "relative_strength": -3.871745, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.323774, "energy": 20.659136, "activity_lines": [ 29.616927, 30.32074, 30.458743, 29.863674 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.7959, "volume": 10912, "typical_volume": 6380.5, "trend": 29.173573, "fair_value": 25.492321, "relative_strength": -2.626446, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.766766, "energy": 22.01765, "activity_lines": [ 29.842287, 30.339516, 30.542994, 29.977901 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }