{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1166954-58ed-4785-9b7d-9a6342df6d31", "symbol": "HPOW", "name": "H-Power plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.432, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.886, "architecture_energy": 57.878, "architecture_maturity": 16.721, "architecture_confidence": 85.306, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.71, "rotation_up": 11.18, "upward_expansion": 11.67, "deceleration": 39.83, "rotation_down": 68.72, "downward_expansion": 87.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.107933, 0.111895, 0.123395, 0.12422 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.111, "trend_reference": 0.12458, "distance_from_trend": -0.109006, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.128562, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.1366, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.936798, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.009091, "excess_performance": -0.042144, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.109006, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04692, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.1366, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.279985, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089368, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.34168, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.009091, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.691959, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7348751, "relative_activity": 0.31624, "balance": 0.691959, "dry_up": 0.556282, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156015, "annualized_volatility": 0.702559, "from_high_reference": -0.379333, "from_low_reference": 0.363636 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.12458, "fair_value_reference": 0.128562, "structural_low": 0.09566, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.062239, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.072546, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.01766, "worst_return": -0.142138, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.130511, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.147981, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.216336, "worst_return": -0.477358, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.102499, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.168246, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.233996, "worst_return": -0.438994, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.372327, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.473055, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.372327, "worst_return": -0.372327, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.588983, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.346859, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032735, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09713, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003009, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018438, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.296471, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097514, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056452, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009091, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.537374, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.151475, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010526, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055133, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.1656, "volume": 8873610, "typical_volume": 14509862.1, "trend": 0.186343, "fair_value": 0.363906, "relative_strength": -12.005463, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.016666, "energy": 25.425061, "activity_lines": [ 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"close": 0.1054, "volume": 14744582, "typical_volume": 23965113.4, "trend": 0.124707, "fair_value": 0.128855, "relative_strength": -13.323873, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.431446, "energy": 53.239659, "activity_lines": [ 0.10764, 0.113978, 0.124849, 0.125105 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.111, "volume": 7348751, "typical_volume": 23237910.25, "trend": 0.12458, "fair_value": 0.128562, "relative_strength": -8.936798, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.885874, "energy": 57.878399, "activity_lines": [ 0.107933, 0.111895, 0.123395, 0.12422 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }