{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1175ac5-3109-47a3-a909-96d19f1178df", "symbol": "KOR", "name": "Amundi MSCI Korea UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 2.767, "architecture_energy": 23.482, "architecture_maturity": 65.525, "architecture_confidence": 74.828, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.38, "rotation_up": 14.72, "upward_expansion": 42.34, "deceleration": 87.93, "rotation_down": 46.84, "downward_expansion": 36.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 160.148668, 170.702911, 173.306239, 164.702345 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 160.380005, "trend_reference": 151.795001, "distance_from_trend": 0.056557, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 80.605577, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.989689, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.368429, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.372764, "excess_performance": 0.201872, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056557, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.243943, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.989689, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.553609, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.153684, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.581101, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.372764, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.731943, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 79137, "relative_activity": 1.379053, "balance": 0.731943, "dry_up": 1.964166, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116651, "annualized_volatility": 0.545567, "from_high_reference": -0.236686, "from_low_reference": 1.466626 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 151.795001, "fair_value_reference": 80.605577, "structural_low": 110.339996, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.002484, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.004757, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.267046, "worst_return": -0.054058, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011878, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.024667, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.577847, "worst_return": -0.122616, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.007699, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032807, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.054922, "worst_return": -0.07032, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 92200, "typical_volume": 52389.5, "trend": 148.053001, "fair_value": 79.370321, "relative_strength": 24.249875, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.150689, "energy": 26.31887, "activity_lines": [ 170.810668, 180.119637, 174.637905, 163.693226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 153.25, "volume": 130196, "typical_volume": 55937.8, "trend": 149.935667, "fair_value": 79.959936, "relative_strength": 14.664738, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.273821, "energy": 21.174184, "activity_lines": [ 162.921334, 174.525637, 173.701095, 164.028517 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 160.380005, "volume": 79137, "typical_volume": 57385.05, "trend": 151.795001, "fair_value": 80.605577, "relative_strength": 15.368429, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.76749, "energy": 23.481906, "activity_lines": [ 160.148668, 170.702911, 173.306239, 164.702345 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }