{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1233b56-b48e-4c07-853a-5096d6fc737d", "symbol": "CAPI", "name": "CAPITAL GROUP INTL EQUITY SELEC", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.607, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.29, "architecture_energy": 44.16, "architecture_maturity": 52.168, "architecture_confidence": 76.234, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.86, "rotation_up": 42.72, "upward_expansion": 73.17, "deceleration": 91.11, "rotation_down": 28.79, "downward_expansion": 11.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.161333, 34.159727, 33.653119, 33.069495 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 34.91, "trend_reference": 32.5125, "distance_from_trend": 0.073741, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.858684, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.209688, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.05271, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.093329, "excess_performance": -0.027092, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073741, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036846, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.209688, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03719, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010527, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007188, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093329, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.95448, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 117900, "relative_activity": 1.737657, "balance": 1.95448, "dry_up": 1.466839, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025593, "annualized_volatility": 0.18812, "from_high_reference": -0.003426, "from_low_reference": 0.251227 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.5125, "fair_value_reference": 28.858684, "structural_low": 29.1, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037843, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05392, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-25", "close": 24.65679, "volume": 2600, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.570464, "energy": 75.583573, "activity_lines": [ 33.953333, 33.467636, 32.609, 32.276022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 34.93, "volume": 40200, "typical_volume": 61510.0, "trend": 31.978715, "fair_value": 28.567093, "relative_strength": 1.651782, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.257074, "energy": 86.286644, "activity_lines": [ 34.342667, 33.816364, 32.878095, 32.476379 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 34.389999, "volume": 52800, "typical_volume": 61695.0, "trend": 32.118932, "fair_value": 28.631792, "relative_strength": 0.004259, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.067627, "energy": 80.415393, "activity_lines": [ 34.452, 34.004364, 33.083048, 32.631945 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.365002, "volume": 139000, "typical_volume": 66325.0, "trend": 32.215388, "fair_value": 28.683805, "relative_strength": -2.738753, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.710261, "energy": 50.811398, "activity_lines": [ 34.116334, 33.957273, 33.182905, 32.712337 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.57, "volume": 58700, "typical_volume": 65215.0, "trend": 32.32, "fair_value": 28.736916, "relative_strength": -2.290811, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.823823, "energy": 40.695982, "activity_lines": [ 33.890667, 33.939182, 33.299262, 32.799731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.009998, "volume": 82500, "typical_volume": 65320.0, "trend": 32.418667, "fair_value": 28.793616, "relative_strength": -0.531143, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.589534, "energy": 31.91656, "activity_lines": [ 33.875666, 33.977454, 33.442619, 32.908763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.91, "volume": 117900, "typical_volume": 67850.0, "trend": 32.5125, "fair_value": 28.858684, "relative_strength": -1.05271, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.28983, "energy": 44.160247, "activity_lines": [ 34.161333, 34.159727, 33.653119, 33.069495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }