{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e124bda5-fcc2-4ecf-95ba-956cbe16defa", "symbol": "002425", "name": "Kaiser (China) Culture Co., LTD", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -13.864, "architecture_energy": 14.049, "architecture_maturity": 95.051, "architecture_confidence": 74.498, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.36, "rotation_up": 29.43, "upward_expansion": 17.15, "deceleration": 44.14, "rotation_down": 23.49, "downward_expansion": 62.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.931333, 2.828727, 2.952667, 3.090043 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.48, "trend_reference": 3.314667, "distance_from_trend": 0.049879, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.300064, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.054525, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.503896, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.116751, "excess_performance": -0.124151, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049879, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103175, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.054525, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022928, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055039, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104564, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.116751, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.809434, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 418878962, "relative_activity": 3.966626, "balance": 0.809434, "dry_up": 2.121026, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094828, "annualized_volatility": 0.491558, "from_high_reference": -0.223214, "from_low_reference": 0.45 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.314667, "fair_value_reference": 3.300064, "structural_low": 2.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.001825, "positive_rate": 0.485714, "directional_follow_through": 0.514286, "median_excess_return": -0.002426, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.265455, "worst_return": -0.299595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.116105, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.033081, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.222917, "worst_return": -0.299197, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.189936, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.124642, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.273319, "worst_return": -0.377868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 80250251.8, "trend": 3.343667, "fair_value": 3.326474, "relative_strength": -31.150147, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.421242, "energy": 63.706897, "activity_lines": [ 2.600667, 2.698545, 2.940095, 3.11329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.82, "volume": 218367092, "typical_volume": 87723556.35, "trend": 3.316667, "fair_value": 3.310577, "relative_strength": -19.498227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.918898, "energy": 52.248484, "activity_lines": [ 2.663333, 2.698909, 2.913333, 3.079505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.48, "volume": 418878962, "typical_volume": 105600823.9, "trend": 3.314667, "fair_value": 3.300064, "relative_strength": -5.503896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.864202, "energy": 14.048732, "activity_lines": [ 2.931333, 2.828727, 2.952667, 3.090043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }