{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1272502-9373-4aa6-8fdd-803ab5dac79a", "symbol": "R1EL34", "name": "RELX PLC", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.364, "architecture_energy": 20.587, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.838, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.03, "rotation_up": 27.42, "upward_expansion": 14.8, "deceleration": 46.93, "rotation_down": 27.12, "downward_expansion": 62.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.363307, 41.10416, 41.796793, 42.230734 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 41.5, "trend_reference": 43.16993, "distance_from_trend": -0.038683, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 54.458023, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.237945, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.813931, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.096468, "excess_performance": 0.153516, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038683, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094799, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.237945, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074039, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.218139, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.139558, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096468, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.070906, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.070906, "dry_up": 4.391711, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034474, "annualized_volatility": 0.321633, "from_high_reference": -0.422817, "from_low_reference": 0.179307 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.16993, "fair_value_reference": 54.458023, "structural_low": 35.190167, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": 0.003776, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.287223, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.075858, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.100462, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.221145, "worst_return": -0.208689, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.055395, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.085447, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.227294, "worst_return": -0.294715, "sufficient": false }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.362722, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005988, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.215887, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.002033, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135564, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024794, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009532, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028523, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.328651, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 38.500801, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 230.8, "trend": 37.332225, "fair_value": 34.257986, "relative_strength": 5.015028, "stage": 2, 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"direction": -65.380114, "energy": 80.999539, "activity_lines": [ 40.139626, 41.167704, 42.234307, 42.95356 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.395496, "volume": 14, "typical_volume": 42.8, "trend": 44.596242, "fair_value": 54.395346, "relative_strength": -24.925047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.132471, "energy": 56.103842, "activity_lines": [ 40.798134, 41.229614, 42.187457, 42.784265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.14624, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 82.5, "trend": 44.131262, "fair_value": 54.42184, "relative_strength": -25.92823, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.828755, "energy": 43.155055, "activity_lines": [ 41.022523, 41.116106, 42.02885, 42.561684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.14624, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 74.95, "trend": 43.6447, "fair_value": 54.438798, "relative_strength": -26.200181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.602933, "energy": 31.021969, "activity_lines": [ 41.19383, 41.07703, 41.888831, 42.369102 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 74.8, "trend": 43.16993, "fair_value": 54.458023, "relative_strength": -21.813931, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.364091, "energy": 20.587202, "activity_lines": [ 41.363307, 41.10416, 41.796793, 42.230734 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }