{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e12ad084-e22f-4d1a-bea3-8c45e0b702f4", "symbol": "TSN", "name": "Tyson Foods, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 51.45, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.095, "architecture_energy": 25.428, "architecture_maturity": 33.976, "architecture_confidence": 56.846, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.59, "rotation_up": 22.15, "upward_expansion": 14.11, "deceleration": 62.98, "rotation_down": 39.62, "downward_expansion": 64.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.981334, 50.804727, 51.843215, 52.347447 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 50.540001, "trend_reference": 52.721975, "distance_from_trend": -0.041386, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.929933, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.032906, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.289935, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.070706, "excess_performance": -0.244952, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041386, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020095, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.032906, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156636, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.172899, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176334, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.070706, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.806723, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.806723, "dry_up": 3.173653, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046092, "annualized_volatility": 0.236993, "from_high_reference": -0.136128, "from_low_reference": 0.191212 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.721975, "fair_value_reference": 48.929933, "structural_low": 47.93, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.026448, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014134, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.077342, "worst_return": -0.024447, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.006877, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.073038, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.006877, "worst_return": -0.006877, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.160044, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.313424, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.160044, "worst_return": -0.160044, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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53.015455, 52.91342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 51.459999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.65, "trend": 52.390422, "fair_value": 48.705099, "relative_strength": -16.378412, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.301444, "energy": 58.780895, "activity_lines": [ 50.482667, 51.708353, 52.839952, 52.861922 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 50.5, "volume": 119, "typical_volume": 6.6, "trend": 52.393342, "fair_value": 48.762353, "relative_strength": -16.56077, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.00014, "energy": 45.588884, "activity_lines": [ 50.578667, 51.273091, 52.579992, 52.739959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.939999, "volume": 164, "typical_volume": 14.8, "trend": 52.461122, "fair_value": 48.817915, "relative_strength": -13.916713, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.772988, "energy": 23.651354, "activity_lines": [ 50.833333, 50.987351, 52.375533, 52.646195 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.279999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 14.3, "trend": 52.535677, "fair_value": 48.849368, "relative_strength": -15.913286, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.099293, "energy": 32.721841, "activity_lines": [ 50.741333, 50.697167, 52.121358, 52.505477 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.200001, "volume": 48, "typical_volume": 16.7, "trend": 52.653795, "fair_value": 48.891244, "relative_strength": -12.430879, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.127166, "energy": 24.386364, "activity_lines": [ 51.16, 50.863818, 52.060522, 52.483821 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.540001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 16.7, "trend": 52.721975, "fair_value": 48.929933, "relative_strength": -17.289935, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.095155, "energy": 25.427517, "activity_lines": [ 50.981334, 50.804727, 51.843215, 52.347447 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }