{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e1363e42-7243-468c-878f-26176173accd", "symbol": "BNGE", "name": "FIRST TR EXCHANGE TRADED FD VI S NETWORK STREAMING & GAMING ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 16.505, "architecture_energy": 21.828, "architecture_maturity": 10.169, "architecture_confidence": 43.717, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.19, "rotation_up": 45.08, "upward_expansion": 39.29, "deceleration": 27.56, "rotation_down": 18.75, "downward_expansion": 45.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.614653, 31.331252, 31.09484, 31.14824 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 32.5042, "trend_reference": 31.64609, "distance_from_trend": 0.027116, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.193574, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.113403, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.695976, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.007505, "excess_performance": -0.13313, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027116, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064944, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.113403, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031225, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.16696, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067884, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007505, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.335924, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1156, "relative_activity": 0.31079, "balance": 0.335924, "dry_up": 1.75532, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028312, "annualized_volatility": 0.187505, "from_high_reference": -0.206656, "from_low_reference": 0.105988 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.64609, "fair_value_reference": 29.193574, "structural_low": 29.3893, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.013285, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.000542, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.110923, "worst_return": -0.0344, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.09294, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.011733, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.138782, "worst_return": 0.047098, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.221808, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.075926, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.285894, "worst_return": 0.157723, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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30.833039, 30.756549, 30.834659, 31.404279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.5061, "volume": 1278, "typical_volume": 4862.9, "trend": 32.478011, "fair_value": 28.955816, "relative_strength": -19.514188, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.495382, "energy": 12.243461, "activity_lines": [ 31.079941, 30.899034, 30.883631, 31.327452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.2824, "volume": 20336, "typical_volume": 5209.9, "trend": 32.266724, "fair_value": 29.013344, "relative_strength": -18.279725, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.925167, "energy": 10.72856, "activity_lines": [ 31.172601, 30.988292, 30.912378, 31.250316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.4041, "volume": 1773, "typical_volume": 5091.4, "trend": 32.016877, "fair_value": 29.062251, "relative_strength": -19.54873, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.614754, "energy": 17.33779, "activity_lines": [ 30.967233, 30.9082, 30.86291, 31.130147 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.6039, "volume": 2851, "typical_volume": 4244.95, "trend": 31.810784, "fair_value": 29.122505, "relative_strength": -16.726623, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.348829, "energy": 7.082902, "activity_lines": [ 31.18886, 31.046463, 30.93563, 31.103503 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.5042, "volume": 1156, "typical_volume": 3719.55, "trend": 31.64609, "fair_value": 29.193574, "relative_strength": -16.695976, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 16.504602, "energy": 21.827713, "activity_lines": [ 31.614653, 31.331252, 31.09484, 31.14824 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }