{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e13a6bdc-95c4-475e-a4bc-53e1da534c52", "symbol": "300051", "name": "Lians Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.973, "architecture_energy": 78.684, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.528, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.84, "rotation_up": 14.78, "upward_expansion": 19.43, "deceleration": 37.61, "rotation_down": 70.58, "downward_expansion": 95.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.647333, 8.087455, 9.929333, 10.548645 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.11, "trend_reference": 10.825667, "distance_from_trend": -0.250854, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.831731, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.08172, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.60991, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.174975, "excess_performance": -0.182374, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.250854, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057779, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.08172, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.905204, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136099, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.718564, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174975, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.488556, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 153363210, "relative_activity": 1.340784, "balance": 0.488556, "dry_up": 0.83602, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.185147, "annualized_volatility": 0.674594, "from_high_reference": -0.568158, "from_low_reference": 0.312298 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.825667, "fair_value_reference": 8.831731, "structural_low": 6.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.009105, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.0139, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.342282, "worst_return": -0.330638, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.02141, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.065519, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.282486, "worst_return": -0.248296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.035276, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.132517, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.511299, "worst_return": -0.313167, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.289195, "energy": 59.846669, "activity_lines": [ 8.860667, 9.852, 11.520572, 11.389204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.13, "volume": 65027196, "typical_volume": 119364209.35, "trend": 10.728667, "fair_value": 8.921346, "relative_strength": -21.703902, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -55.200337, "energy": 74.383708, "activity_lines": [ 8.22, 9.126909, 11.071, 11.157742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.15, "volume": 79783802, "typical_volume": 119668497.25, "trend": 10.742, "fair_value": 8.891538, "relative_strength": -21.446771, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.323089, "energy": 76.581838, "activity_lines": [ 7.749333, 8.574364, 10.637381, 10.92686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.54, "volume": 84332332, "typical_volume": 120516078.8, "trend": 10.770333, "fair_value": 8.86109, "relative_strength": -15.691358, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.448707, "energy": 84.103738, "activity_lines": [ 7.554667, 8.228727, 10.252095, 10.72028 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.11, "volume": 153363210, "typical_volume": 114383223.45, "trend": 10.825667, "fair_value": 8.831731, "relative_strength": -13.60991, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.972971, "energy": 78.684402, "activity_lines": [ 7.647333, 8.087455, 9.929333, 10.548645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }