{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e13a8f35-dfab-4bec-aa05-bcf223287d66", "symbol": "CSV", "name": "Carriage Services Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.271, "architecture_energy": 45.324, "architecture_maturity": 35.294, "architecture_confidence": 94.825, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.0, "rotation_up": 23.89, "upward_expansion": 5.84, "deceleration": 52.89, "rotation_down": 49.74, "downward_expansion": 76.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.989217, 38.272183, 40.206392, 41.457847 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 35.87, "trend_reference": 42.650722, "distance_from_trend": -0.158983, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.772509, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.002725, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.846317, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.188732, "excess_performance": -0.314357, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.158983, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029198, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.002725, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.300013, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.258463, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16918, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.188732, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.693345, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1291929, "relative_activity": 2.128008, "balance": 0.693345, "dry_up": 1.286508, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090385, "annualized_volatility": 0.358894, "from_high_reference": -0.309863, "from_low_reference": 0.016435 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.650722, "fair_value_reference": 35.772509, "structural_low": 35.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.005813, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.015029, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.237376, "worst_return": -0.244403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.077258, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.032792, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.24917, "worst_return": -0.359622, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.062527, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.164237, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.11662, "worst_return": -0.352294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.565933, "volume": 669948, "typical_volume": 553019.1, "trend": 43.058272, "fair_value": 35.615252, "relative_strength": -20.834297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.441316, "energy": 51.187013, "activity_lines": [ 38.129853, 38.826098, 41.453409, 42.358244 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.852369, "volume": 595939, "typical_volume": 559225.0, "trend": 42.956631, "fair_value": 35.664698, "relative_strength": -17.180953, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.830652, "energy": 43.054403, "activity_lines": [ 38.315075, 38.66301, 41.070982, 42.086895 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.258474, "volume": 566376, "typical_volume": 565518.3, "trend": 42.922092, "fair_value": 35.730351, "relative_strength": -14.624968, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.702073, "energy": 33.168048, "activity_lines": [ 38.922841, 38.834989, 40.843871, 41.912821 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.87, "volume": 1291929, "typical_volume": 607107.15, "trend": 42.650722, "fair_value": 35.772509, "relative_strength": -25.846317, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.271487, "energy": 45.324117, "activity_lines": [ 37.989217, 38.272183, 40.206392, 41.457847 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }