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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.263, "architecture_energy": 41.412, "architecture_maturity": 72.282, "architecture_confidence": 72.348, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.83, "rotation_up": 16.72, "upward_expansion": 20.31, "deceleration": 60.22, "rotation_down": 70.53, "downward_expansion": 45.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 13186.0, 13647.272727, 13861.190476, 13731.569892 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12985.0, "trend_reference": 13520.5, "distance_from_trend": -0.039607, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10276.681397, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.26354, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.304821, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.002703, "excess_performance": -0.227126, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039607, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036266, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.26354, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13934, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.193048, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.178981, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002703, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.125904, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 204550, "relative_activity": 0.66641, "balance": 1.125904, "dry_up": 1.22929, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047481, "annualized_volatility": 0.138631, "from_high_reference": -0.143752, "from_low_reference": 0.266069 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13520.5, "fair_value_reference": 10276.681397, "structural_low": 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"direction": 27.604081, "energy": 17.830427, "activity_lines": [ 14125.666667, 14268.727273, 14073.571429, 13816.096774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13330.0, "volume": 325988, "typical_volume": 327458.85, "trend": 13515.666667, "fair_value": 10229.08518, "relative_strength": -23.902437, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.505618, "energy": 17.366669, "activity_lines": [ 13799.0, 14090.909091, 14027.738095, 13805.849462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12900.0, "volume": 609920, "typical_volume": 317291.9, "trend": 13520.666667, "fair_value": 10251.794446, "relative_strength": -24.566085, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.451986, "energy": 37.900694, "activity_lines": [ 13423.333333, 13849.181818, 13939.47619, 13766.129032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12985.0, "volume": 204550, "typical_volume": 306943.35, "trend": 13520.5, "fair_value": 10276.681397, "relative_strength": -19.304821, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.262971, "energy": 41.41235, "activity_lines": [ 13186.0, 13647.272727, 13861.190476, 13731.569892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }